Public health surveillance systems provide valuable data for reliable predication of future epidemic events. This paper describes a study that used nine types of infectious disease data collected through a national public health surveillance system in mainland China to evaluate and compare the performances of four time series methods, namely, two decomposition methods (regression and exponential smoothing), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector machine (SVM). The data obtained from 2005 to 2011 and in 2012 were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The accuracy of the statistical models in forecasting future epidemic disease proved their effectiveness in epidemiological surveillance. Although the comparisons found that no single method is completely superior to the others, the present study indeed highlighted that the SVMs outperforms the ARIMA model and decomposition methods in most cases.

The core domains of social anxiety disorder (SAD), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), panic disorder (PD) with and without agoraphobia (GA), and specific phobia (SP) are cognitive and physical symptoms that are related to the experience of fear and anxiety. It remains unclear whether these highly comorbid conditions that constitute the anxiety disorder subgroups of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders – Fifth Edition (DSM-5) represent distinct disorders or alternative presentations of a single underlying pathology. A systematic search of voxel-based morphometry (VBM) studies of SAD, GAD, PD, GA, and SP was performed with an effect-size signed differential mapping (ES-SDM) meta-analysis to estimate the clusters of significant gray matter differences between patients and controls. Twenty-four studies were eligible for inclusion in the meta-analysis. Reductions in the right anterior cingulate gyrus and the left inferior frontal gyrus gray matter volumes (GMVs) were noted in patients with anxiety disorders when potential confounders, such as comorbid major depressive disorder (MDD), age, and antidepressant use were controlled for. We also demonstrated increased GMVs in the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) in comorbid depression-anxiety (CDA), drug-naïve and adult patients. Furthermore, we identified a reduced left middle temporal gyrus and right precentral gyrus in anxiety patients without comorbid MDD. Our findings indicate that a reduced volume of the right ventral anterior cingulate gyrus and left inferior frontal gyrus is common in anxiety disorders and is independent of comorbid depression, medication use, and age. This generic effect supports the notion that the four types of anxiety disorders have a clear degree of overlap that may reflect shared etiological mechanisms. The results are consistent with neuroanatomical DLPFC models of physiological responses, such as worry and fear, and the importance of the ventral anterior cingulate (ACC)/medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) in mediating anxiety symptoms.

Accurate incidence forecasting of infectious disease is critical for early prevention and for better government strategic planning. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of different forecasting methods based on the monthly incidence of typhoid fever. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and three different models inspired by neural networks, namely, back propagation neural networks (BPNN), radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and Elman recurrent neural networks (ERNN) were compared. The differences as well as the advantages and disadvantages, among the SARIMA model and the neural networks were summarized and discussed. The data obtained for 2005 to 2009 and for 2010 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The results showed that RBFNN obtained the smallest MAE, MAPE and MSE in both the modeling and forecasting processes. The performances of the four models ranked in descending order were: RBFNN, ERNN, BPNN and the SARIMA model.

The surveillance of infection is very important for public health management and disease control. It has been 10 years since China implemented its new web-based infection surveillance system, which covers the largest population in the world. In this study, time series data were collected for 28 infectious diseases reported from 2005 to 2014 . Seasonality and long-term trends were explored using decomposition methods. Seasonality was expressed by calculating the seasonal indices. Long-term trends in the diseases were assessed using a linear regression model on the deseasonalized series. During the 10-year period, 38 982 567 cases and 126 372 deaths were reported in the system. The proportion of deaths caused by AIDS increased from 12% in 2005 to 78% in 2014. There were six diseases for which the seasonal index range was greater than 2: dengue fever, Japanese encephalitis, leptospirosis, anthrax, cerebrospinal meningitis, and measles . Among the 28 diseases, the incidence of syphilis increased fastest, with an average increase of 0.018626/100 000 every month after adjustment for seasonality. Effective surveillance is helpful in gaining a better understanding of the infection behaviour of infectious diseases; this will greatly facilitate disease control and management.

The surveillance of infectious diseases is of great importance for disease control and prevention, and more attention should be paid to the Class B notifiable diseases in China. Meanwhile, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the annual growth of Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) would decelerate below 7% after many years of soaring. Under such circumstances, this study aimed to answer what will happen to the incidence rates of infectious diseases in China if Chinese GDP growth remained below 7% in the next five years. Firstly, time plots and cross-correlation matrices were presented to illustrate the characteristics of data. Then, the multivariate time series (MTS) models were proposed to explore the dynamic relationship between incidence rates and GDP. Three kinds of MTS models, i.e., vector auto-regressive (VAR) model for original series, VAR model for differenced series and error-correction model (ECM), were considered in this study. The rank of error-correction term was taken as an indicator for model selection. Finally, our results suggested that four kinds of infectious diseases (epidemic hemorrhagic fever, pertussis, scarlet fever and syphilis) might need attention in China because their incidence rates have increased since the year 2010.