Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve theory, the authors choose provincial panel data of China in 1990–2007 and adopt panel unit root and co-integration testing method to study whether there is Environmental Kuznets Curve for China’s carbon emissions. The research results show that: carbon emissions per capita of the eastern region and the central region of China fit into Environmental Kuznets Curve, but that of the western region does not. On this basis, the authors carry out scenario analysis on the occurrence time of the inflection point of carbon emissions per capita of different regions, and describe a specific time path.

It is known that the rapid progress of the Chinese economy is perceived to be aligned more towards increasing the economic quantity (GDP) rather than its quality primarily owing to a large amount of carbon emission, increased environmental pollution, and high resource consumption. However, such perception comes with no single evidence or study that compares growth rates between the quantity and quality of China’s economic development. Such a comparative study could provide useful information to the Chinese government and concerned agencies to manage and promote sustainable economic development in China. Here we developed a comprehensive economic development quality evaluation indicator system to study China’s progress on economic quality from 1978 to 2017 and compare it with GDP growth rates over the same period. Results indicate that during the period 1978–2017, China’s economic development quality index has increased significantly, higher than the average annual growth rate of GDP during the same period. This higher growth rate of Chinese economic development quality could be attributed to the country’s achievements in tackling environmental pollution, narrowing the income gap, promoting technological progress and innovation, improving economic efficiency, maintaining social stability, and improving social welfare. We suggest the world re-evaluate China’s economic development achievement and growth patterns that can provide a reference for other developing countries.