The prediction of traffic accident severity is essential for traffic safety management and control. To achieve high prediction accuracy and model interpretability, we propose a hybrid model that integrates random forest (RF) and Bayesian optimization (BO). In the proposed model, BO-RF, RF is adopted as a basic predictive model and BO is used to tune the parameters of RF. Experimental results show that BO-RF achieves higher accuracy than conventional algorithms. Moreover, BO-RF provides interpretable results by relative importance and a partial dependence plot. We can identify important influential factors for traffic accident severity by relative importance. Further, we can investigate how the influential factors affect traffic accident severity by the partial dependence plot. These results provide insights to mitigate the severity of traffic accident consequences and contribute to the sustainable development of transportation.

This paper presents a state transition based formal framework for a new search method, called Evolutionary Ruin and Stochastic Recreate, which tries to learn and adapt to the changing environments during the search process. It improves the performance of the original Ruin and Recreate principle by embedding an additional phase of Evolutionary Ruin to mimic the survival-of-the-fittest mechanism within single solutions. This method executes a cycle of Solution Decomposition, Evolutionary Ruin, Stochastic Recreate and Solution Acceptance until a certain stopping condition is met. The Solution Decomposition phase first uses some problem-specific knowledge to decompose a complete solution into its components and assigns a score to each component. The Evolutionary Ruin phase then employs two evolutionary operators (namely Selection and Mutation) to destroy a certain fraction of the solution, and the next Stochastic Recreate phase repairs the “broken” solution. Last, the Solution Acceptance phase selects a specific strategy to determine the probability of accepting the newly generated solution. Hence, optimisation is achieved by an iterative process of component evaluation, solution disruption and stochastic constructive repair. From the state transitions point of view, this paper presents a probabilistic model and implements a Markov chain analysis on some theoretical properties of the approach. Unlike the theoretical work on genetic algorithm and simulated annealing which are based on state transitions within the space of complete assignments, our model is based on state transitions within the space of partial assignments. The exam timetabling problems are used to test the performance in solving real-world hard problems

The timetabling problem (TTP) and vehicle scheduling problem (VSP) are two indispensable problems in public transit planning process. They used to be solved in sequence; hence, optimality of resulting solutions is compromised. To get better results, some integrated approaches emerge to solve the TTP and VSP as an integrated problem. In the existing integrated approaches, the passenger comfort on bus and the uncertainty in the real world are rarely considered. To provide better service for passengers and enhance the robustness of the schedule to be compiled, we study the integrated optimization of TTP and VSP with uncertainty. In this paper, a novel multiobjective optimization approach with the objectives of minimizing the passenger travel cost, the vehicle scheduling cost, and the incompatible trip-link cost is proposed. Meanwhile, a multiobjective hybrid algorithm, which is a combination of the self-adjust genetic algorithm (SGA), large neighborhood search (LNS) algorithm, and Pareto separation operator (PSO), is applied to solve the integrated optimization problem. The experimental results show that the approach outperforms existing approaches in terms of service level and robustness.