Background/Aims: Despite the high efficacy of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), approximately 1–3% of hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients fail to achieve a sustained virological response. We conducted a nationwide study to investigate risk factors associated with DAA treatment failure. Machine-learning algorithms have been applied to discriminate subjects who may fail to respond to DAA therapy.Methods: We analyzed the Taiwan HCV Registry Program database to explore predictors of DAA failure in HCV patients. Fifty-five host and virological features were assessed using multivariate logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and artificial neural network. The primary outcome was undetectable HCV RNA at 12 weeks after the end of treatment. Results: The training (n=23,955) and validation (n=10,346) datasets had similar baseline demographics, with an overall DAA failure rate of 1.6% (n=538). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that liver cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, poor DAA adherence, and higher hemoglobin A1c were significantly associated with virological failure. XGBoost outperformed the other algorithms and logistic regression models, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 1.000 in the training dataset and 0.803 in the validation dataset. The top five predictors of treatment failure were HCV RNA, body mass index, α-fetoprotein, platelets, and FIB-4 index. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the XGBoost model (cutoff value=0.5) were 99.5%, 69.7%, 99.9%, 97.4%, and 99.5%, respectively, for the entire dataset.Conclusions: Machine learning algorithms effectively provide risk stratification for DAA failure and additional information on the factors associated with DAA failure.

Background and Aims: A single-nation study reported that pretreatment HBV viral load is associated with on-treatment risk of HCC in patients who are HBeAg-positive without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B initiating antiviral treatment. We aimed to validate the association between baseline HBV viral load and on-treatment HCC risk in a larger, multinational cohort. Approach and Results: Using a multinational cohort from Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan involving 7545 adult patients with HBeAg-positive, without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B who started entecavir or tenofovir treatment with baseline HBV viral load ≥5.00 log₁₀ IU/mL, HCC risk was estimated by baseline viral load. HBV viral load was analyzed as a categorical variable. During continuous antiviral treatment (median, 4.28 y), HCC developed in 200 patients (incidence rate, 0.61 per 100 person-years). Baseline HBV DNA level was independently associated with on-treatment HCC risk in a nonlinear pattern. HCC risk was lowest with the highest baseline viral load (≥8.00 log₁₀ IU/mL; incidence rate, 0.10 per 100 person-years), but increased sharply as baseline viral load decreased. The adjusted HCC risk was 8.05 times higher (95% CI, 3.34–19.35) with baseline viral load ≥6.00 and <7.00 log₁₀ IU/mL (incidence rate, 1.38 per 100 person-years) compared with high (≥8.00 log₁₀ IU/mL) baseline viral load (p<0.001). Conclusions: In a multinational cohort of adult patients with HBeAg-positive without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B, baseline HBV viral load was significantly associated with HCC risk despite antiviral treatment. Patients with the highest viral load who initiated treatment had the lowest long-term risk of HCC development.

The treatment of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) has evolved from interferon (IFN)-based therapy to direct acting antivirals (DAAs). The effect of antiviral treatment on outcome of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with CHC has not been well analyzed in Taiwan. From April 2015 to May 2018, 199 HCC patients with CHC undergoing DAAs treatment, including 127 having prospectively longitudinal observation, were enrolled. Among them, 107 BCLC 0/A patients achieving curative treatment of HCC were further compared with a historical cohort of 42 HCC patients experienced pegylated interferon (Peg-IFN) plus ribavirin for CHC after curative treatment. The sustained virological response (SVR) rates were 95.0% in BCLC stage 0/A (114/120), 97.1% in BCLC B (68/70), and 77.8% in BCLC C (7/9). The median recurrence-free survivals (RFS) between the DAA and IFN arms were of no difference by counting either from antiviral treatment (29.3 mo vs 39.2 mo, p = 0.764) or from curative treatment (65.8 mo vs 44.0 mo, p = 0.130), respectively. Achievement of SVR was the key independent factor associated with RFS and overall survival. The pattern of recurrence was also similar between the DAA and IFN arms. For intermediate stage HCC patients, the median time to tumor progression was 9.2 months from the initiation of DAA therapy, and 90% of patients maintained in BCLC B till 12 months after the DAA treatment. The SVR is high within BCLC B HCV-HCC patients by DAAs treatment. The risk of HCC recurrence and progression is not increased by DAAs.

INTRODUCTION: Concerns regarding bleeding remain in cold snare polypectomy (CSP) for small pedunculated (0-Ip) polyps. The aim of this study was to compare the risk of CSP and hot snare polypectomy (HSP) for such lesions. METHODS: Data on 0-Ip colorectal polyps ≤10 mm were extracted from a large, pragmatic, randomized trial. Immediate postpolypectomy bleeding (IPPB), defined as the perioperative use of a clip for bleeding, was evaluated through polyp-level analysis. Delayed postpolypectomy bleeding (DPPB), defined as bleeding occurring within 2 weeks postoperatively, was assessed at the patient-level among patients whose polyps were all ≤10 mm, including at least one 0-Ip polyp. RESULTS: A total of 647 0-Ip polyps (CSP: 306; HSP: 341) were included for IPPB analysis and 386 patients (CSP: 192; HSP: 194) for DPPB analysis. CSP was associated with a higher incidence of IPPB (10.8% vs 3.2%, P < 0.001) but no adverse clinical events. The procedure time of all polypectomies was shorter for CSP than for HSP (123.0 ± 117.8 vs 166.0 ± 237.7 seconds, P = 0.003), while the procedure time of polypectomies with IPPB were similar (249.8 ± 140.2 vs 227.4 ± 125.9 seconds, P = 0.64). DPPB was observed in 3 patients (1.5%) in the HSP group, including one patient (0.5%) with severe bleeding, but not in the CSP group. DISCUSSION: Despite CSP being associated with more IPPB events, it could be timely treated without adverse outcomes. Notably, no delayed bleeding occurred in the CSP group. Our findings support the use of CSP for 0-Ip polyps ≤ 10 mm.