Crop yield monitoring is an important component in agricultural assessment. Multi-spectral remote sensing instruments onboard space-borne platforms such as Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) have shown to be useful for efficiently generating timely and synoptic information on the yield status of crops across regional levels. However, the coarse spatial resolution data inherent to these sensors provides little utility at the management level. Recent satellite imagery collection advances toward finer spatial resolution (down to 1 m) alongside increased observational cadence (near daily) implies information on crops obtainable at field and within-field scales to support farming needs is now possible. To test this premise, we focus on assessing the efficiency of multiple satellite sensors, namely WorldView-3, Planet/Dove-Classic, Sentinel-2, and Landsat 8 (through Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 (HLS)), and investigate their spatial, spectral (surface reflectance (SR) and vegetation indices (VIs)), and temporal characteristics to estimate corn and soybean yields at sub-field scales within study sites in the US state of Iowa. Precision yield data as referenced to combine harvesters’ GPS systems were used for validation. We show that imagery spatial resolution of 3 m is critical to explaining 100% of the within-field yield variability for corn and soybean. Our simulation results show that moving to coarser resolution data of 10 m, 20 m, and 30 m reduced the explained variability to 86%, 72%, and 59%, respectively. We show that the most important spectral bands explaining yield variability were green (0.560 μm), red-edge (0.726 μm), and near-infrared (NIR − 0.865 μm). Furthermore, the high temporal frequency of Planet and a combination of Sentinel-2/Landsat 8 (HLS) data allowed for optimal date selection for yield map generation. Overall, we observed mixed performance of satellite-derived models with the coefficient of determination (R²) varying from 0.21 to 0.88 (averaging 0.56) for the 30 m HLS and from 0.09 to 0.77 (averaging 0.30) for 3 m Planet. R² was lower for fields with higher yields, suggesting saturation of the satellite-collected reflectance features in those cases. Therefore, other biophysical variables, such as soil moisture and evapotranspiration, at similar fine spatial resolutions are likely needed alongside the optical imagery to fully explain the yields.

The utility of remote sensing data in crop yield modeling has typically been evaluated at the regional or state level using coarse resolution (>250 m) data. The use of medium resolution data (10–100 m) for yield estimation at field scales has been limited due to the low temporal sampling frequency characteristics of these sensors. Temporal sampling at a medium resolution can be significantly improved, however, when multiple remote sensing data sources are used in combination. Furthermore, data fusion approaches have been developed to blend data from different spatial and temporal resolutions. This paper investigates the impacts of improved temporal sampling afforded by multi-source datasets on our ability to explain spatial and temporal variability in crop yields in central Iowa (part of the U.S. Corn Belt). Several metrics derived from vegetation index (VI) time-series were evaluated using Landsat-MODIS fused data from 2001 to 2015 and Landsat-Sentinel2-MODIS fused data from 2016 and 2017. The fused data explained the yield variability better, with a higher coefficient of determination (R²) and a smaller relative mean absolute error than using a single data source alone. In this study area, the best period for the yield prediction for corn and soybean was during the middle of the growing season from day 192 to 236 (early July to late August, 1–3 months before harvest). These findings emphasize the importance of high temporal and spatial resolution remote sensing data in agricultural applications.

Crop yield forecasting is performed monthly during the growing season by the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. The underpinnings are long-established probability surveys reliant on farmers’ feedback in parallel with biophysical measurements. Over the last decade though, satellite imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) has been used to corroborate the survey information. This is facilitated through the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies/Global Agricultural Monitoring system, which provides open access to pertinent real-time normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. Hence, two relatively straightforward MODIS-based modeling methods are employed operationally. The first model constitutes mid-season timing based on the maximum peak NDVI value, while the second is reflective of late-season timing by integrating accumulated NDVI over a threshold value. Corn model results nationally show the peak NDVI method provides a R² of 0.88 and a coefficient of variation (CV) of 3.5%. The accumulated method, using an optimally derived 0.58 NDVI threshold, improves the performance to 0.93 and 2.7%, respectively. Both these models outperform simple trend analysis, which is 0.48 and 7.4%, correspondingly. For soybeans the R² results of the peak NDVI model are 0.62, and 0.73 for the accumulated using a 0.56 threshold. CVs are 6.8% and 5.7%, respectively. Spring wheat’s R² performance with the accumulated NDVI model is 0.60 but just 0.40 with peak NDVI. The soybean and spring wheat models perform similarly to trend analysis. Winter wheat and upland cotton show poor model performance, regardless of method. Ultimately, corn yield forecasting derived from MODIS imagery is robust, and there are circumstances when forecasts for soybeans and spring wheat have merit too.

Crop type inventory and within season estimates at moderate (85%) accuracies and the ability to provide insight on crop location and extent within the crop season. HLS fused with S1 had, at times, a higher accuracy (5–10% relative overall accuracy and kappa increases) within season although the combination of fused data was minimal at times, crop dependent, and the accuracies tended to converge by harvest. In cloud prone regions and certain temporal periods, S1 performed well overall. The growth in the availability of time dense moderate resolution data streams and different sensitivities of optical and radar data provide a mechanism for within season crop mapping and area estimates that can help improve food security.

Crop emergence is a critical stage for crop development modeling, crop condition monitoring, and biomass accumulation estimation. Green-up dates (or the start of the season) detected from remote sensing time series are related to, but generally lag, crop emergence dates. In this paper, we refine the within-season emergence (WISE) algorithm and extend application to five Corn Belt states (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, and Nebraska) using routine harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) data from 2018 to 2020. Green-up dates detected from the HLS time series were assessed using field observations and near-surface measurements from PhenoCams. Statistical descriptions of green-up dates for corn and soybeans were generated and compared to county-level planting dates and district- to state-level crop emergence dates reported by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Results show that emergence dates for corn and soybean can be reliably detected within the season using the HLS time series acquired during the early growing season. Compared to observed crop emergence dates, green-up dates from HLS using WISE were ~3 days later at the field scale (30-m). The mean absolute difference (MAD) was ~7 days and the root mean square error (RMSE) was ~9 days. At the state level, the mean differences between median HLS green-up date and median crop emergence date were within 2 days for 2018–2020. At this scale, MAD was within 4 days, and RMSE was less than 5 days for both corn and soybeans. The R-squares were 0.73 and 0.87 for corn and soybean, respectively. The 2019 late emergence of crops in Corn Belt states (1–4 weeks to five-year average) was captured by HLS green-up date retrievals. This study demonstrates that routine within-season mapping of crop emergence/green-up at the field scale is practicable over large regions using operational satellite data. The green-up map derived from HLS during the growing season provides valuable information on spatial and temporal variability in crop emergence that can be used for crop monitoring and refining agricultural statistics used in broad-scale modeling efforts.