Genomic selection - the prediction of breeding values using DNA polymorphisms - is a disruptive method that has widely been adopted by animal and plant breeders to increase productivity. It was recently shown that other sources of molecular variations such as those resulting from transcripts or metabolites could be used to accurately predict complex traits. These endophenotypes have the advantage of capturing the expressed genotypes and consequently the complex regulatory networks that occur in the different layers between the genome and the phenotype. However, obtaining such omics data at very large scales, such as those typically experienced in breeding, remains challenging. As an alternative, we proposed using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) as a high-throughput, low cost and non-destructive tool to indirectly capture endophenotypic variants and compute relationship matrices for predicting complex traits, and coined this new approach "phenomic selection" (PS). We tested PS on two species of economic interest (Triticum aestivum L. and Populus nigra L.) using NIRS on various tissues (grains, leaves, wood). We showed that one could reach predictions as accurate as with molecular markers, for developmental, tolerance and productivity traits, even in environments radically different from the one in which NIRS were collected. Our work constitutes a proof of concept and provides new perspectives for the breeding community, as PS is theoretically applicable to any organism at low cost and does not require any molecular information.

Genomic-enabled prediction models are of paramount importance for the successful implementation of genomic selection (GS) based on breeding values. As opposed to animal breeding, plant breeding includes extensive multienvironment and multiyear field trial data. Hence, genomic-enabled prediction models should include genotype × environment (G × E) interaction, which most of the time increases the prediction performance when the response of lines are different from environment to environment. In this chapter, we describe a historical timeline since 2012 related to advances of the GS models that take into account G × E interaction. We describe theoretical and practical aspects of those GS models, including the gains in prediction performance when including G × E structures for both complex continuous and categorical scale traits. Then, we detailed and explained the main G × E genomic prediction models for complex traits measured in continuous and noncontinuous (categorical) scale. Related to G × E interaction models this review also examine the analyses of the information generated with high-throughput phenotype data (phenomic) and the joint analyses of multitrait and multienvironment field trial data that is also employed in the general assessment of multitrait G × E interaction. The inclusion of nongenomic data in increasing the accuracy and biological reliability of the G × E approach is also outlined. We show the recent advances in large-scale envirotyping (enviromics), and how the use of mechanistic computational modeling can derive the crop growth and development aspects useful for predicting phenotypes and explaining G × E.

Key message We propose a criterion to predict genomic selection efficiency for structured populations. This criterion is useful to define optimal calibration set and to estimate prediction reliability for multiparental populations. Abstract Genomic selection refers to the use of genotypic information for predicting the performance of selection candidates. It has been shown that prediction accuracy depends on various parameters including the composition of the calibration set (CS). Assessing the level of accuracy of a given prediction scenario is of highest importance because it can be used to optimize CS sampling before collecting phenotypes, and once the breeding values are predicted it informs the breeders about the reliability of these predictions. Different criteria were proposed to optimize CS sampling in highly diverse panels, which can be useful to screen collections of genotypes. But plant breeders often work on structured material such as biparental or multiparental populations, for which these criteria are less adapted. We derived from the generalized coefficient of determination (CD) theory different criteria to optimize CS sampling and to assess the reliability associated to predictions in structured populations. These criteria were evaluated on two nested association mapping (NAM) populations and two highly diverse panels of maize. They were efficient to sample optimized CS in most situations. They could also estimate at least partly the reliability associated to predictions between NAM families, but they could not estimate differences in the reliability associated to the predictions of NAM families using the highly diverse panels as calibration sets. We illustrated that the CD criteria could be adapted to various prediction scenarios including inter and intra-family predictions, resulting in higher prediction accuracies.

Key message We propose a statistical criterion to optimize multi-environment trials to predict genotype × environment interactions more efficiently, by combining crop growth models and genomic selection models. Abstract Genotype × environment interactions (GEI) are common in plant multi-environment trials (METs). In this context, models developed for genomic selection (GS) that refers to the use of genome-wide information for predicting breeding values of selection candidates need to be adapted. One promising way to increase prediction accuracy in various environments is to combine ecophysiological and genetic modelling thanks to crop growth models (CGM) incorporating genetic parameters. The efficiency of this approach relies on the quality of the parameter estimates, which depends on the environments composing this MET used for calibration. The objective of this study was to determine a method to optimize the set of environments composing the MET for estimating genetic parameters in this context. A criterion called OptiMET was defined to this aim, and was evaluated on simulated and real data, with the example of wheat phenology. The MET defined with OptiMET allowed estimating the genetic parameters with lower error, leading to higher QTL detection power and higher prediction accuracies. MET defined with OptiMET was on average more efficient than random MET composed of twice as many environments, in terms of quality of the parameter estimates. OptiMET is thus a valuable tool to determine optimal experimental conditions to best exploit MET and the phenotyping tools that are currently developed.