Future predictions from paleoecology: Terrestrial ecosystems will be transformed by current anthropogenic change, but the extent of this change remains a challenge to predict. Nolan et al. looked at documented vegetational and climatic changes at almost 600 sites worldwide since the last glacial maximum 21,000 years ago. From this, they determined vegetation responses to temperature changes of 4° to 7°C. They went on to estimate the extent of ecosystem changes under current similar (albeit more rapid) scenarios of warming. Without substantial mitigation efforts, terrestrial ecosystems are at risk of major transformation in composition and structure. Science , this issue p. 920

We present a record of monsoon variations for the early and middle Holocene that is inferred from the geochemistry of sediment cores from Ahung Co, a lake in central Tibet. The resolution of this record is better than 50 yr and the age model is derived from radiocarbon ages of terrestrial charcoal, which eliminates errors associated with the lake hard-water effect. We made down-core geochemical measurements of % carbonate, % organic carbon, C/N and δ¹³C of bulk organic matter, δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O of carbonate, and % dolomite. Proxy calibration and modern water-balance reconstruction show that these are proxies for lake depth and the amount of monsoon precipitation. We find that lake level and monsoon precipitation have been decreasing at Ahung Co since the early Holocene (∼7500 cal yr B.P.). Superimposed on this trend are rapid declines in monsoon rainfall at 7000–7500 and 4700 cal yr B.P. and seven century-scale wet–dry oscillations. The cores do not contain sediment from the last ∼4000 yr. Surface sediments from the lake accumulated during the 20th century, however. From this, we argue that lake levels have risen again recently following a late Holocene dry period.

Prehistoric human activities were likely influenced by cyclic monsoon climate changes in East Asia. Here we report a decadal-resolution Holocene pollen record from an annually-laminated Maar Lake in Northeast China, a proxy of monsoon climate, together with a compilation of 627 radiocarbon dates from archeological sites in Northeast China which is a proxy of human activity. The results reveal synchronous ~500-year quasi-periodic changes over the last 8000 years. The warm-humid/cold-dry phases of monsoon cycles correspond closely to the intensification/weakening of human activity and the flourishing/decline of prehistoric cultures. Six prosperous phases of prehistoric cultures, with one exception, correspond approximately to warm-humid phases caused by a strengthened monsoon. This ~500-year cyclicity in the monsoon and thus environmental change triggered the development of prehistoric cultures in Northeast China. The cyclicity is apparently linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, against the background of long-term Holocene climatic evolution. These findings reveal a pronounced relationship between prehistoric human activity and cyclical climate change.