A landslide dam typically comprises freshly deposited heterogeneous, unconsolidated or poorly consolidated earth materials and is vulnerable to overtopping breaching. A physically-based breach model is presented to simulate the breaching process of such landslide dams. The new model can predict the breach evolution, the erosion rate, and the outflow hydrograph. A spreadsheet is developed to numerically implement the model. The erosion processes of Tangjiashan Landslide Dam and Xiaogangjian Landslide Dam induced by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake are analyzed using the new model. The erodibility of the two landslide dams varies significantly along depth. The predicted key breaching parameters (i.e., final breach size, failure time, and peak outflow rate) considering the variations in the soil erodibility along depth agree well with the observed values. Further sensitivity analysis indicates that the soil erodibility affects the breaching process of a landslide dam significantly. Higher soil erodibility will lead to a larger breach, a shorter failure time and a larger peak outflow rate. The erosion rate of the breach channel in the depth direction decreases with increasing erosion resistance of the landslide deposits. In the two case studies, the key breaching parameters cannot be properly predicted if constant soil erodibility parameters along depth are assumed.

As any model is only an abstraction of the real world, model uncertainty always exists. The magnitude of model uncertainty is important for geotechnical decision making. If model uncertainty is not considered, the geotechnical predictions and hence the decisions based on the geotechnical predictions might be biased. In this study, a framework for characterizing geotechnical model uncertainty using observation data is proposed. The framework is based on the concept of multivariable Bayesian updating, in which the statistics of model uncertainty are updated using observed performance data. Uncertainties in both input parameters and observed data can be considered in the proposed framework. To bypass complex computational works involved in the proposed framework, a practical approximate solution is presented. The proposed framework is illustrated by characterizing the model uncertainty of four limit equilibrium methods for slope stability analysis using quality centrifuge test data. Parametric study in the i...