The current study focuses on the effects of the seismic events occurred in Central Italy on 2016, which caused in this area unacceptably losses of human life and severe damage to the building stock and monumental heritage. The main aims of this article are first to provide a qualitative picture of damage observed on 68 one-nave churches located in Marche, Umbria, and Lazio, and then to assess the possibility of using an approach based on Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for predictive purposes. Based on a large number of post-earthquake inspections, which have been carried out within the activity of the Italian consortium ReLUIS, Damage Probability Matrices have been obtained by adopting a macro-element approach. It has been applied to both single damage mechanism and for assessing the global damage of the examined churches. Finally, an expected damage level has been evaluated using a first-level predictive model as a function of vulnerability indexes, allowing a comparison with the actual damage revealed after the earthquake. The obtained outcomes prove that the predictive model is quite reliable for reproducing the damage scenario of churches spread over a large territory, provided that the PGA level is used as a measure of earthquake intensity.

The present manuscript deals with the seismic vulnerability assessment of existing masonry churches, which is a fundamental process for risk and consequent prioritization analyses, as well as application of effective retrofitting strategies. In the past, different approaches with various levels of accuracy and application ranges have been developed to assess the vulnerability to damage of such structures in case of seismic events. Based on the classification provided in the Italian Guidelines for the Cultural Heritage, in this paper a review of seismic vulnerability assessment methodologies for existing masonry churches is presented. The main goal of the current study is to provide a critical comparative overview about these procedures, highlighting the main issues related to the application of each detail level. Moreover, particular attention is focused on the applications present in literature, allowing for the definition of a potential systematic procedure for smart management policy aimed at preserving cultural, architectural and historical heritage.