A key priority for infectious disease research is to clarify how pathogen genetic variation, modulated by host immunity, transmission bottlenecks, and epidemic dynamics, determines the wide variety of pathogen phylogenies observed at scales that range from individual host to population. We call the melding of immunodynamics, epidemiology, and evolutionary biology required to achieve this synthesis pathogen “phylodynamics.” We introduce a phylodynamic framework for the dissection of dynamic forces that determine the diversity of epidemiological and phylogenetic patterns observed in RNA viruses of vertebrates. A central pillar of this model is the Evolutionary Infectivity Profile, which captures the relationship between immune selection and pathogen transmission.

A key question in pandemic influenza is the relative roles of innate immunity and target cell depletion in limiting primary infection and modulating pathology. Here, we model these interactions using detailed data from equine influenza virus infection, combining viral and immune (type I interferon) kinetics with estimates of cell depletion. The resulting dynamics indicate a powerful role for innate immunity in controlling the rapid peak in virus shedding. As a corollary, cells are much less depleted than suggested by a model of human influenza based only on virus-shedding data. We then explore how differences in the influence of viral proteins on interferon kinetics can account for the observed spectrum of virus shedding, immune response, and influenza pathology. In particular, induction of high levels of interferon (“cytokine storms”), coupled with evasion of its effects, could lead to severe pathology, as hypothesized for some fatal cases of influenza.

Evolution of equine influenza a H3N8 viruses was examined by antigenic and genetic analysis of a collection isolates from around the world. It was noted that antigenic and genetic variants of equine H3N8 viruses cocirculate, and in particular that variants currently circulating in Europe and the USA are distinguishable from one another both in terms of antigenic reactivity and genetic structure of the HA1 portion of the haemagglutinin (HA) molecule. Whilst the divergent evolution of American and European isolates may be due to geographical isolation of the two gene pools, some mixing is believed to occur as 'American-like' viruses have been isolated during outbreaks of equine influenza in the UK. The cocirculation of two antigenically and genetically distinct lineages of equine influenza H3N8 viruses has serious implications for vaccine strain selection.

Determining the evolutionary basis of cross-species transmission and immune evasion is key to understanding the mechanisms that control the emergence of either new viruses or novel antigenic variants with pandemic potential. The hemagglutinin glycoprotein of influenza A viruses is a critical host range determinant and a major target of neutralizing antibodies. Equine influenza virus (EIV) is a significant pathogen of the horse that causes periodical outbreaks of disease even in populations with high vaccination coverage. EIV has also jumped the species barrier and emerged as a novel respiratory pathogen in dogs, canine influenza virus. We studied the dynamics of equine influenza virus evolution in horses at the intrahost level and how this evolutionary process is affected by interhost transmission in a natural setting. To this end, we performed clonal sequencing of the hemagglutinin 1 gene derived from individual animals at different times postinfection. Our results show that despite the population consensus sequence remaining invariant, genetically distinct subpopulations persist during the course of infection and are also transmitted, with some variants likely to change antigenicity. We also detected a natural case of mixed infection in an animal infected during an outbreak of equine influenza, raising the possibility of reassortment between different strains of virus. In sum, our data suggest that transmission bottlenecks may not be as narrow as originally perceived and that the genetic diversity required to adapt to new host species may be partially present in the donor host and potentially transmitted to the recipient host.

We retrospectively demonstrated that an outbreak of severe respiratory disease in a pack of English foxhounds in the United Kingdom in September 2002 was caused by an equine influenza A virus (H3N8). We also demonstrated that canine respiratory tissue possesses the relevant receptors for infection with equine influenza virus.