No consensus strategies exist for prognosticating metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Circulating tumor DNA fraction (ctDNA%) is increasingly reported by commercial and laboratory tests but its utility for risk stratification is unclear. Here, we intersect ctDNA%, treatment outcomes, and clinical characteristics across 738 plasma samples from 491 male mCRPC patients from two randomized multicentre phase II trials and a prospective province-wide blood biobanking program. ctDNA% correlates with serum and radiographic metrics of disease burden and is highest in patients with liver metastases. ctDNA% strongly predicts overall survival, progression-free survival, and treatment response independent of therapeutic context and outperformed established prognostic clinical factors. Recognizing that ctDNA-based biomarker genotyping is limited by low ctDNA% in some patients, we leverage the relationship between clinical prognostic factors and ctDNA% to develop a clinically-interpretable machine-learning tool that predicts whether a patient has sufficient ctDNA% for informative ctDNA genotyping (available online: https://www.ctDNA.org). Our results affirm ctDNA% as an actionable tool for patient risk stratification and provide a practical framework for optimized biomarker testing.

Purpose: Androgen receptor pathway inhibitors (ARPI) are standard of care for treatment-naïve metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), but rapid resistance is common. Early identification of resistance will improve management strategies. We investigated whether changes in circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) fraction during ARPI treatment are linked with mCRPC clinical outcomes. Experimental Design: Plasma cell-free DNA was collected from 81 patients with mCRPC at baseline and after 4 weeks of first-line ARPI treatment during two prospective multicenter observational studies (NCT02426333; NCT02471469). ctDNA fraction was calculated from somatic mutations in targeted sequencing and genome copy-number profiles. Samples were classified into detected versus undetected ctDNA. Outcome measurements were progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Nondurable treatment response was defined as PFS ≤6 months. Results: ctDNA was detected in 48/81 (59%) baseline and 29/81 (36%) 4-week samples. ctDNA fraction for samples with detected ctDNA was lower at 4 weeks versus baseline (median 5.0% versus 14.5%, P = 0.017). PFS and OS were shortest for patients with persistent ctDNA at 4 weeks (univariate HR, 4.79; 95% CI, 2.62–8.77 and univariate HR, 5.49; 95% CI, 2.76–10.91, respectively), independent of clinical prognostic factors. For patients exhibiting change from detected to undetected ctDNA by 4 weeks, there was no significant PFS difference versus patients with baseline undetected ctDNA. ctDNA change had a positive predictive value of 88% and negative predictive value of 92% for identifying nondurable responses. Conclusions: Early changes in ctDNA fraction are strongly linked to duration of first-line ARPI treatment benefit and survival in mCRPC and may inform early therapy switches or treatment intensification. See related commentary by Sartor, p. 2745

Darolutamide is a next-generation androgen receptor signaling inhibitor (ARSI) currently approved for the treatment of nonmetastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (nmCRPC) and metastatic hormone sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC). Studies suggest that darolutamide also has the potential to be used to treat other stages of prostate cancer (PC), suggesting that its indications will broaden in the near future. Since ARSIs show similar efficacy for the treatment of PC, pharmacokinetic properties of these drugs and patient characteristics could help physicians decide which drug to select. This review provides an overview of the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties of darolutamide. One of the most important pharmacological advantages of darolutamide is its low brain distribution and therefore limited seizure potential and central nervous system adverse effects. In addition, darolutamide has little drug–drug interaction potential and is unlikely to alter the exposure of other cytochrome P450 or P-glycoprotein substrates. Nevertheless, it may significantly increase the exposure of breast cancer resistant protein (BCRP) substrates. The limited solubility and bioavailability of darolutamide increases when taken together with food, regardless of the fat content. Darolutamide is excessively metabolized by oxidation and glucuronidation and excreted in the urine and feces. For this reason, dose reduction is required in patients with moderate and severe renal or severe hepatic impairment. Although no exposure–response relationship was observed with darolutamide, less advanced stages of PC showed better PSA response on treatment. Overall, darolutamide has some advantageous pharmacological properties that may lead to its preferred use, when broader registered, in selected patients across different disease stages.

Circulating RNAs extracted from liquid biopsies represent a promising source of cancer‐ and therapy‐related biomarkers. We screened whole blood from patients with metastatic castration‐resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) following their first‐line treatment with abiraterone acetate and prednisone (AA‐P) to identify circulating RNAs that may correlate with progression‐free survival (PFS). In a prospective multicenter observational study, 53 patients with mCRPC were included after they started first‐line AA‐P treatment. Blood was drawn at baseline, 1, 3, and 6 months after treatment initiation. The levels of predefined circulating RNAs earlier identified as being upregulated in patients with mCRPC (e.g., microRNAs, long noncoding RNAs, and mRNAs), were analyzed. Uni‐ and multivariable Cox regression and Kaplan–Meier analyses were used to analyze the prognostic value of the various circulating RNAs for PFS along treatment. Detectable levels of kallikrein‐related peptidase 3 (KLK3) mRNA at baseline were demonstrated to be an independent prognostic marker for PFS (201 vs 501 days, P = 0.00054). Three months after AA‐P treatment initiation, KLK3 could not be detected in the blood of responding patients, but was still detectable in 56% of the patients with early progression. Our study confirmed that KLK3 mRNA detection in whole blood is an independent prognostic marker in mCRPC patients receiving AA‐P treatment. Furthermore, the levels of circulating KLK3 mRNA in patients receiving AA‐P treatment might reflect treatment response or early signs of progression.

Treatment evaluation in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer is challenging. There is an urgent need for biomarkers to discriminate short-term survivors from long-term survivors, shortly after treatment initiation. Thereto, the added value of early RNA biomarkers on predicting progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were explored. The RNA biomarkers: KLK3 mRNA, miR-375, miR-3687, and NAALADL2-AS2 were measured in 93 patients with mCRPC, before and 1 month after start of first-line abiraterone acetate or enzalutamide treatment, in two prospective clinical trials. The added value of the biomarkers to standard clinical parameters in predicting PFS and OS was tested by Harell’s C-index. To test whether the biomarkers were independent markers of PFS and OS, multivariate Cox regression was used. The best prediction model for PFS and OS was formed by adding miR-375 and KLK3 (at baseline and 1 month) to standard clinical parameters. Baseline miR-375 and detectable KLK3 after 1 month of therapy were independently related to shorter PFS, which was not observed for OS. In conclusion, the addition of KLK3 and miR-375 (at baseline and 1 month) to standard clinical parameters resulted in the best prediction model for survival assessment.

Aims: To assess whether the exposure–response relation for abiraterone is different in pre‐chemotherapy patients compared to post‐chemotherapy patients with metastatic castration‐resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC).Methods: Data were collected from three clinical studies in mCRPC patients treated with abiraterone acetate. Cox regression analysis was used to determine the relation between abiraterone exposure and survival (progression‐free survival [PFS] and overall survival [OS]). An interaction term was used to test whether chemotherapy pretreatment was an effect modifier. To investigate the effect of the previously defined exposure threshold of 8.4 ng/mL on survival, Kaplan–Meier analysis was used.Results: In total, 98 mCRPC patients were included, of which 78 were pre‐chemotherapy and 20 were post‐chemotherapy patients. Chemotherapy pretreatment in mCRPC setting appears to be an effect modifier. In pre‐chemotherapy patients, no significant association between abiraterone exposure and survival was observed (HR 0.68 [95% CI 0.42–1.10], P = .12 and HR 0.85 [95% CI 0.46–1.60], P = .61, PFS and OS, respectively) and no longer survival was seen for patients with an abiraterone exposure above the predefined threshold. In contrast, a significant association was seen in post‐chemotherapy patients (HR 0.30 [95% CI 0.12–0.74], P = .01 and HR 0.38 [95% CI 0.18–0.82] P = .01, PFS and OS, respectively), with an increased survival when exposed above this threshold.Conclusion: Chemotherapy pretreatment in mCRPC setting modifies the abiraterone exposure–response relation. No relation between abiraterone exposure and survival was seen for pre‐chemotherapy patients. Therefore, potentially lower doses can be used in this setting to prevent overtreatment and reduce financial toxicity.