Woody plant encroachment is a world wide phenomenon with implications on the hydrologic cycle at the catchment scale that are not well understood. In this study, we use observations from two small semiarid watersheds in southern Arizona that have been encroached by the velvet mesquite tree and apply a distributed hydrologic model to explore runoff threshold processes experienced during the North American monsoon. The paired watersheds have similar soil and meteorological conditions, but vary considerably in terms of vegetation cover (mesquite, grass, bare soil) and their proportions with one basin having undergone mesquite removal in 1974. Long‐term observations from the watersheds exhibit changes in runoff production over time, such that the watershed with more woody plants currently has less runoff for small rainfall events, more runoff for larger events, and a larger runoff ratio during the study periods (summers 2011 and 2012). To explain this observation, we first test the distributed model, parameterized with high‐resolution (1 m) terrain and vegetation distributions, against continuous data from an environmental sensor network, including an eddy covariance tower, soil moisture, and temperature profiles in different vegetation types, and runoff observations. We find good agreement between the model and observations for simultaneous water and energy states and fluxes over a range of measurement scales. We then identify that the areal fraction of grass (bare soil) cover determines the runoff response for small (large) rainfall events due to the dominant controls of antecedent wetness (hydraulic conductivity). These model‐derived mechanisms explain how woody plants have differential effects on runoff in semiarid basins depending on precipitation event sizes.

Due to their large extent and high primary productivity, tropical dry forests (TDF) are important contributors to atmospheric carbon exchanges in subtropical and tropical regions. In northwest Mexico, a bimodal precipitation regime that includes winter precipitation derived from Pacific storms and summer precipitation from the North American monsoon (NAM) couples water availability with ecosystem processes. We investigated the net ecosystem production of a TDF ecosystem using a 4.5 year record of water and carbon fluxes obtained from the eddy covariance method complemented with remotely sensed data. We identified a large CO₂ efflux at the start of the summer season that is strongly related to the preceding winter precipitation and greenness. Since this CO₂ efflux occurs prior to vegetation green‐up, we infer that respiration is mainly due to decomposition of soil organic matter accumulated from the prior growing season. Overall, ecosystem respiration has an important effect on the net ecosystem production but can be overwhelmed by the strength of the primary productivity during the NAM. Precipitation characteristics during NAM have significant controls on sustaining carbon fixation in the TDF into the fall season. We identified that a threshold of ~350 to 400 mm of monsoon precipitation leads to a switch in the annual carbon balance in the TDF ecosystem from a net source (+102 g C/m²/yr) to a net sink (−249 g C/m²/yr). This monsoonal precipitation threshold is typically exceeded one out of every 2 years. The close coupling of winter and summer periods with respect to carbon fluxes suggests that the annual carbon balance is dependent on precipitation amounts in both seasons in TDF ecosystems.

Seasonal vegetation changes during the North American monsoon play a major role in modifying water, energy, and momentum fluxes. Nevertheless, most models parameterize plants as a static component or with averaged seasonal variations that ignore interannual differences and their potential impact on evapotranspiration (ET) and its components. Here vegetation parameters derived from remote sensing data were coupled with a hydrologic model at two eddy covariance (EC) sites with observations spanning multiple summers. Sinaloan thornscrub (ST) and Madrean woodland (MW) sites, arranged at intermediate and high elevations along mountain fronts in northwest Mexico, occupy specific niches related to climate conditions and water availability that are poorly understood. We found that simulations with a dynamic representation of vegetation greening tracked well the seasonal evolution of observed ET and soil moisture (SM). A switch in the dominant component of ET from soil evaporation (E) to plant transpiration (T) was observed for each ecosystem depending on the timing and magnitude of vegetation greening that is directly tied to rainfall characteristics. Differences in vegetation greening at the ST and MW sites lead to a dominance of transpiration at ST (T/ET = 57%), but evaporation‐dominant conditions at MW (T/ET = 19%). Peak transpiration occurred at 5 and 20 days after the full canopy development in the ST and MW sites, respectively. These results indicate that evapotranspiration timing and partitioning varies considerably in the two studied ecosystems in accordance with different modes of vegetation greening. Intermediate‐elevation ecosystems follow an intensive water use strategy with a rapid and robust transpiration response to water availability. In contrast, higher elevation sites have delayed and attenuated transpiration, suggesting an extensive water use strategy persisting beyond the North American monsoon.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global temperatures have risen at an alarming pace since the early 20th century and this warming has been more pronounced since the 1970s. Temperature variations are significant because of their relation with thermal comfort and public health. In this study, we characterize the impacts of increasing maximum air temperatures in Sonora, Mexico. Heat days (HDs) and heat waves (HWs) were used as indicators to investigate historical trends in extreme heat. Furthermore, HDs were represented using a generalized linear regression model during the observed period (1966–2015) to generate future scenarios related to extreme heat and subsequently compared with six downscaled general circulation models (CNRM‐CM5, CSIRO Mk3.6.0, HadGEM2‐CC, HadGEM2‐ES, IPSL‐CM5A‐LR and IPSL‐CM5A‐MR) under low and high radiative scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results of this work indicate that climate stations in Sonora have exhibited increases in the number of HDs and HWs in the historical record that can be associated to physical factors such as elevation, urban land cover and the percent of annual rainfall during the summer. Statistical and model‐based projections indicate that these trends will continue in the future up to 2060, with less moderate increases and high uncertainty noted for the difference scenarios of the downscaled models. These observed and projected trends in extreme heat are important for identifying adaptation strategies in the public and environmental health sectors in Sonora.