We applied logistic regression and Random Forest to evaluate drivers of fire occurrence on a provincial scale. Potential driving factors were divided into two groups according to scale of influence: ‘climate factors’, which operate on a regional scale, and ‘local factors’, which includes infrastructure, vegetation, topographic and socioeconomic data. The groups of factors were analysed separately and then significant factors from both groups were analysed together. Both models identified significant driving factors, which were ranked in terms of relative importance. Results show that climate factors are the main drivers of fire occurrence in the forests of Fujian, China. Particularly, sunshine hours, relative humidity (fire seasonal and daily), precipitation (fire season) and temperature (fire seasonal and daily) were seen to play a crucial role in fire ignition. Of the local factors, elevation, distance to railway and per capita GDP were found to be most significant. Random Forest demonstrated a higher predictive ability than logistic regression across all groups of factors (climate, local, and climate and local combined). Maps of the likelihood of fire occurrence in Fujian illustrate that the high fire-risk zones are distributed across administrative divisions; consequently, fire management strategies should be devised based on fire-risk zones, rather than on separate administrative divisions.

Frequent and intense anthropogenic fires present meaningful challenges to forest management in the boreal forest of China. Understanding the underlying drivers of human-caused fire occurrence is crucial for making effective and scientifically-based forest fire management plans. In this study, we applied logistic regression (LR) and Random Forests (RF) to identify important biophysical and anthropogenic factors that help to explain the likelihood of anthropogenic fires in the Chinese boreal forest. Results showed that the anthropogenic fires were more likely to occur at areas close to railways and were significantly influenced by forest types. In addition, distance to settlement and distance to road were identified as important predictors for anthropogenic fire occurrence. The model comparison indicated that RF had greater ability than LR to predict forest fires caused by human activity in the Chinese boreal forest. High fire risk zones in the study area were identified based on RF, where we recommend increasing allocation of fire management resources.

The pattern and driving factors of forest fires are of interest for fire occurrence prediction and forest fire management. The aims of the study were: (i) to describe the history of human-caused fires by season and size of burned area over time; (ii) to identify the spatial patterns of human-caused fires and test for the existence of ‘hotspots’ to determine their exact locations in the Daxing’an Mountains; (iii) to determine the driving factors that determine the spatial distribution and the possibility of human-caused fire occurrence. In this study, K-function and Kernel density estimation were used to analyze the spatial pattern of human-caused fires. The analysis was conducted in S-plus and ArcGIS environments, respectively. The analysis of driving factors was performed in SPSS 19.0 based on a logistic regression model. The variables used to identify factors that influence fire occurrence included vegetation types, meteorological conditions, socioeconomic factors, topography and infrastructure factors, which were extracted and collected through the spatial analysis mode of ArcGIS and from official statistics, respectively. The annual number of human-caused fires and the area burnt have declined since 1987 due to the implementation of a forest fire protection act. There were significant spatial heterogeneity and seasonal variations in the distribution of human-caused fires in the Daxing’an Mountains. The heterogeneity was caused by elevation, distance to the nearest railway, forest type and temperature. A logistic regression model was developed to predict the likelihood of human-caused fire occurrence in the Daxing’an Mountains; its global accuracy attained 64.8%. The model was thus comparable to other relevant studies.