Significance: Forests are experiencing growing risks of drought-induced mortality in a warming world. Yet, ecosystem dynamics following drought mortality remain unknown, representing a major limitation to our understanding of the ecological consequences of climate change. We provide an emerging picture of postdrought ecological trajectories based on field indicators of forest dynamics. Replacement patterns following mortality indicate limited short-term persistence of predrought dominant tree species, highlighting the potential for major ecosystem reorganization in the coming decades. The great variability of the observed dynamics within and among species reinforces the primary influence of drought characteristics and ecosystem legacies, modulated by land use, management, and past disturbances, on ongoing drought-related species turnover and their potential implications for future forest biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Increased forest vulnerability is being reflected as more widespread and severe drought-induced decline episodes. In particular, the Mediterranean area is revealing a high susceptibility to phenomena of loss in tree vitality across species. Within tree species, oaks (Quercus spp.) are experiencing extensive decline in many countries. However, in the wake of the so-called “oak decline phenomenon”, the attention on these species has generally been limited. In this paper, we review the current available literature on oak-decline cases reported within the Mediterranean Basin, with particular remark for those occurred in Italy and Spain. More specifically our main aims were to: (i) provide an update on the patterns and mechanisms of decline by focusing on tree-ring and wood-anatomical variables; (ii) provide some hints for improving the resistance and resilience of oak stands experiencing decline. Our review reveals that drought is reported as the main driver triggering oak decline within the Mediterranean Basin, although other causes (i.e., increasing temperature, pathogens attack or excessive stand density) could exacerbate decline. In most reported cases, drought induced a substantial reduction of growth and changes in some wood anatomical properties. Indeed, growth decline prior death is also indicated as an early-warning signal of impending death. In ring-porous oak species, declining trees were often characterized by a very low production of latewood and a decrease in lumen area of the widest earlywood vessels, suggesting a potential reduction of hydraulic conductivity. Moreover, hydraulic dysfunction is reported as the main cause of decline. Finally, regarding management actions that should be considered for improving the resilience of declining stands and preserve the species-specific stand composition, it could be useful to shorten the rotation period of coppice stands or promoting their gradual conversion towards high forests, and favoring more drought-resistant species should also be considered. In addition, regeneration prior to regeneration cuts should be improved by anticipating seed dispersal or by planting oak seedlings obtained from local germoplasm.

Individual differences in the access to deep soil water pools may explain the differential damage among coexisting, conspecific trees as a consequence of drought-induced dieback. We addressed this issue by comparing the responses to a severe drought of three Mediterranean oak species with different drought tolerance, Quercus pubescens L. and Quercus frainetto Ten., mainly thriving at xeric and mesic sites, respectively, and Quercus cerris L., which dominates at intermediate sites. For each species, we compared coexisting declining (D) and non-declining (ND) trees. The stable isotope composition (δ2H, δ18O) of xylem and soil water was used to infer a differential use of soil water sources. We also measured tree size and radial growth to quantify the long-term divergence of wood production between D and ND trees and non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) in sapwood to evaluate if D trees presented lower NSC values. The ND trees had access to deeper soil water than D trees except in Q. frainetto, as indicated by significantly more depleted xylem water values. However, a strong δ2H offset between soil and xylem water isotopes observed in peak summer could suggest that both tree types were not physiologically active under extreme drought conditions. Alternative processes causing deuterium fractionation, however, could not be ruled out. Tree height and recent (last 15–25 years) growth rates in all species studied were lower in D than in ND trees by 22 and 44%, respectively. Lastly, there was not a consistent pattern of NSC sapwood concentration; in Q. pubescens, it was higher in ND trees while in Q. frainetto, the D trees were the ones exhibiting the higher NSC concentration. We conclude that the vulnerability to drought among conspecific Mediterranean oaks depends on the differential access to deep soil water pools, which may be related to differences in rooting depth, tree size and growth rate.

Drought stress causes forest dieback that is often explained by two interrelated mechanisms, namely hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. However, it is still unclear which functional and structural alterations, related to these mechanisms, predispose to dieback. Here we apply a multi-proxy approach for the characterization of tree structure (radial growth, wood anatomy) and functioning (δ13C, δ18O and non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs)) in tree rings before and after drought-induced dieback. We aim to discriminate which is the main mechanism and to assess which variables can act as early-warning proxies of drought-triggered damage. The study was tailored in southern Italy in two forests (i.e., San Paolo (SP) and Oriolo (OR)) where declining and non-declining trees of a ring-porous tree species (Quercus frainetto Ten.) showing anisohydric behavior coexist. Both stands showed growth decline in response to warm and dry spring conditions, although the onset of dieback was shifted between them (2002 in SP and 2009 in OR). Declining trees displayed a sharp growth drop after this onset with reductions of 49% and 44% at SP and OR sites, respectively. Further, contrary to what we expected, declining trees showed a lower intrinsic water-use efficiency compared with non-declining trees after the dieback onset (with reductions of 9.7% and 5.6% at sites SP and OR, respectively), due to enhanced water loss through transpiration, as indicated by the lower δ18O values. This was more noticeable at the most drought-affected SP stand. Sapwood NSCs did not differ between declining and non-declining trees, indicating no carbon starvation in affected trees. Thus, the characterized structural and functional alterations partially support the hydraulic failure mechanism of dieback. Finally, we show that growth data are reliable early-warning proxies of drought-triggered dieback.

Hydraulic theory suggests that tall trees are at greater risk of drought-triggered death caused by hydraulic failure than small trees. In addition the drop in growth, observed in several tree species prior to death, is often interpreted as an early-warning signal of impending death. We test these hypotheses by comparing size, growth and wood-anatomy patterns of living and now-dead trees in two Italian oak forests showing recent mortality episodes. The mortality probability of trees is modelled as a function of recent growth and tree size. Drift-diffusion-jump (DDJ) metrics are used to detect early-warning signals. We found that the tallest trees of the anisohydric Italian oak better survived drought contrary to what was predicted by the theory. Dead trees were characterized by a lower height and radial-growth trend than living trees in both study sites. The growth reduction of now-dead trees started about ten years prior to their death and after two severe spring droughts during the early 2000s. This critical transition in growth was detected by DDJ metrics in the most affected site. Dead trees were also more sensitive to drought stress in this site indicating different susceptibility to water shortage between trees. Dead trees did not form earlywood vessels with smaller lumen diameter than surviving trees but tended to form wider latewood vessels with a higher percentage of vessel area. Since living and dead trees showed similar competition we did not expect that moderate thinning and a reduction in tree density would increase the short-term survival probability of trees.