Summary: Some disturbances can drive ecological systems to abrupt shifts between alternative stages (tipping points) when critical transitions occur. Drought‐induced tree death can be considered as a nonlinear shift in tree vigour and growth. However, at what point do trees become predisposed to drought‐related dieback and which factors determine this (tipping) point? We investigated these questions by characterizing the responses of three tree species, silver fir (Abies alba), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis), to a severe drought event. We compared basal area increment (BAI) trends and responses to climate and drought in declining (very defoliated and dying) vs. non‐declining (slightly or not defoliated) trees by using generalized additive mixed models. Defoliation, BAI and sapwood production were related to functional proxies of tree vigour measured at the onset and end of the drought (non‐structural carbohydrate concentrations, needle N content and C isotopic discrimination, presence of wood‐inhabiting fungi). We evaluated whether early warning signals (increases in synchronicity among trees or in autocorrelation and standard deviation) could be extracted from the BAI series prior to tree death. Declining silver fir and Scots pine trees showed less growth than non‐declining trees one to three decades, respectively, before the drought event, whereas Aleppo pines showed growth decline irrespective of tree defoliation. At the end of the drought period, all species showed increased defoliation and a related reduction in the concentration of sapwood soluble sugars. Defoliation was constrained by the BAI of the previous 5 years and sapwood production. No specific wood‐inhabiting fungi were found in post‐drought declining trees apart from blue‐stain fungi, which extensively affected damaged Scots pines. Declining silver firs showed increases in BAI autocorrelation and variability prior to tree death. Synthesis. Early warning signals of drought‐triggered mortality seem to be species specific and reflect how different tree species cope with drought stress. Highly correlated declining growth patterns during drought can serve as a signal in silver fir, whereas changes in the content of sapwood soluble sugars are suitable vigour proxies for Scots and Aleppo pines. Longer growth and defoliation series, additional vigour parameters and multi‐species comparisons are required to understand and predict drought‐induced tree death.

Significance: As trees worldwide experience mortality or dieback with increasing drought and low tundras grow taller with warming, understanding the link between plant height and climate is increasingly important. We show that taller plants have predictably wider water-conducting conduits, and that wider conduits within species are more vulnerable to conduction-blocking embolisms. These two observations suggest that tall plants in formerly moist areas die because their wide conduits are excessively vulnerable under novel drought conditions. Also, the cold that limits conduit diameter, and therefore height, in tundra plants is relaxed under warming, permitting wider conduits and taller plants. That plant height appears linked to climate via plant hydraulics helps explain why vegetation height differs across biomes and is altering with climate change.

Climate change can lead to the simultaneous occurrence of extreme droughts and heat waves increasing the frequency of compound events with unknown impacts on forests. Here we use two independent datasets, a compiled database of tree drought mortality events and the ICP-Forest level I plots, to study the impacts of the simultaneous occurrence of hot summers, with elevated vapour pressure deficit (VPD), and dry years on forest defoliation and mortality across Europe. We focused on tree drought mortality and background mortality rates, and we studied their co-occurrence with compound events of hot summers and dry years. In total, 143 out of 310 mortality events across Europe, i.e. 46% of cases, corresponded with rare compound events characterized by hot summers and dry years. Over the past decades, summer temperature increased in most sites and severe droughts resulted in compound events not observed before the 1980s. From the ICP-Forest plots we identified 291 (1718 trees) and 61 plots (128 trees) where severe defoliation and mortality, respectively, were caused by drought. The analyses of these events showed that 34% and 27% of the defoliation and mortality cases corresponded with rare compound climate events, respectively. Background mortality rates across Europe in the period 1993-2013 presented higher values in regions where summer temperature and VPD more steeply rose, where drought frequency increased. The steady increase in summer temperatures and VPD in Southern and Eastern Europe may favor the occurrence of compound events of hot summers and dry conditions. Giving that both, local and intense tree drought mortality events and background forest mortality rates, are linked to such compound events we can expect an increase in forest drought mortality in these European regions over the next decades.

The time required for an ecosystem to recover from severe drought is a key component of ecological resilience. The phenology effects on drought recovery are, however, poorly understood. These effects centre on how phenology variations impact biophysical feedbacks, vegetation growth and, ultimately, recovery itself. Using multiple remotely sensed datasets, we found that more than half of ecosystems in mid- and high-latitudinal Northern Hemisphere failed to recover from extreme droughts within a single growing season. Earlier spring phenology in the drought year slowed drought recovery when extreme droughts occurred in mid-growing season. Delayed spring phenology in the subsequent year slowed drought recovery for all vegetation types (with importance of spring phenology ranging from 46% to 58%). The phenology effects on drought recovery were comparable to or larger than other well-known postdrought climatic factors. These results strongly suggest that the interactions between vegetation phenology and drought must be incorporated into Earth system models to accurately quantify ecosystem resilience.