The machine learning approach has been widely used in many areas of studies, including the tourism sector. It can offer powerful estimation for prediction. With a growing number of tourism activities, there is a need to predict tourists’ classification for monitoring, decision making, and planning formulation. This paper aims to predict visitors to totally protected areas in Sarawak using machine learning techniques. The prediction model developed would be able to identify significant factors affecting local and foreign visitors to these areas. Several machine learning techniques such as k-NN, Naive Bayes, and Decision Tree were used to predict whether local and foreign visitors’ arrival was high, medium, or low to these totally protected areas in Sarawak, Malaysia. The data of local and foreign visitors’ arrival to eighteen totally protected areas covering national parks, nature reserves, and wildlife centers in Sarawak, Malaysia, from 2015 to 2019 were used in this study. Variables such as the age of the park, distance from the nearest city, types of the park, recreation services availability, natural characteristics availability, and types of connectivity were used in the model. Based on the accuracy measure, precision, and recall, results show Decision Tree (Gain Ratio) exhibited the best prediction performance for both local visitors (accuracy = 80.65) and foreign visitors (accuracy = 84.35%). Distance to the nearest city and size of the park were found to be the most important predictors in predicting the local tourist visitors’ park classification, while for foreign visitors, age, type of park, and the natural characteristics availability were the significant predictors in predicting the foreign tourist visitors’ parks classification. This study exemplifies that machine learning has respectable potential for the prediction of visitors’ data. Future research should consider bagging and boosting algorithms to develop a visitors’ prediction model.

Based on data of visitors to national parks, nature reserves and wildlife sanctuaries in Sarawak, this study’s objective is to use the spatial and temporal analysis to describe the underlying trend and temporal pattern of local and foreign visitors and ultimately infer the temporal distribution of visitors to 18 different TPAs. The second aim of the study is to cluster the visitors according to the location of TPAs using Wards hierarchical clustering method. By comparing average monthly visitors’ count, we observed that the average number of monthly visitors significantly reflects the distribution concentration of visitors based on the spatial map. Findings indicate that the monthly distributions of local and foreign visitors differ according to different TPAs. The spatial and temporal analysis found that local visitors’ arrival is high at the end of the year while foreign visitors showed significant arrival during the months of July, August and September. The Wards minimum variance method was able to cluster TPAs local and foreign visitors into very high, high, medium and low visitor area. This study provides additional information that could contribute to identifying the periods of highest visitor pressure, design measures to manage the concentration of visitors and improve the overall visitors’ experience. The findings of the study are also important to respective local authorities in providing information for planning and monitoring tourism in TPAs. Consecutively, this will ensure sustainability of TPAs resources while protecting their biodiversity.

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