Meeting the required amount of energy between supply and demand is indispensable for energy manufacturers. Accordingly, electric industries have paid attention to short-term energy forecasting to assist their management system. This paper firstly compares multiple machine learning (ML) regressors during the training process. Five best ML algorithms, such as extra trees regressor (ETR), random forest regressor (RFR), light gradient boosting machine (LGBM), gradient boosting regressor (GBR), and K neighbors regressor (KNN) are trained to build our proposed voting regressor (VR) model. Final predictions are performed using the proposed ensemble VR and compared with five selected ML benchmark models. Statistical autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) is also compared with the proposed model to reveal results. For the experiments, usage energy and weather data are gathered from four regions of Jeju Island. Error measurements, including mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean squared error (MSE) are computed to evaluate the forecasting performance. Our proposed model outperforms six baseline models in terms of the result comparison, giving a minimum MAPE of 0.845% on the whole test set. This improved performance shows that our approach is promising for symmetrical forecasting using time series energy data in the power system sector.

The objective of this research is to improve the short-term load forecasting accuracy using deep learning models such as long short-term memory (LSTM) and deep belief network (DBN). The required historical data is provided by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). Long short-term memory model which can learn to store time series data in memory and solve long dependencies problems and deep belief network model are investigated to overcome back propagation problems in the network. The proposed models are trained and tested using the cleaned data during the period of January 2016 to January 2017 by smoothing the raw data. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE) are used to measure the forecasting accuracy. In this research, the results generated by the LSTM model are compared with those of the DBN model. The results show that the LSTM model execute higher accuracy performance than the DBN model.

This review paper is a foundational resource for power distribution and management decisions, thoroughly examining short-term load forecasting (STLF) models within power systems. The study categorizes these models into three groups: statistical approaches, intelligent-computing-based methods, and hybrid models. Performance indicators are compared, revealing the superiority of heuristic search and population-based optimization learning algorithms integrated with artificial neural networks (ANNs) for STLF. However, challenges persist in ANN models, particularly in weight initialization and susceptibility to local minima. The investigation underscores the necessity for sophisticated predictive models to enhance forecasting accuracy, advocating for the efficacy of hybrid models incorporating multiple predictive approaches. Acknowledging the changing landscape, the focus shifts to STLF in smart grids, exploring the transformative potential of advanced power networks. Smart measurement devices and storage systems are pivotal in boosting STLF accuracy, enabling more efficient energy management and resource allocation in evolving smart grid technologies. In summary, this review provides a comprehensive analysis of contemporary predictive models and suggests that ANNs and hybrid models could be the most suitable methods to attain reliable and accurate STLF. However, further research is required, including considerations of network complexity, improved training techniques, convergence rates, and highly correlated inputs to enhance STLF model performance in modern power systems.

The energy manufacturers are required to produce an accurate amount of energy by meeting the energy requirements at the end-user side. Consequently, energy prediction becomes an essential role in the electric industrial zone. In this paper, we propose the hybrid ensemble deep learning model, which combines multilayer perceptron (MLP), convolutional neural network (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), and hybrid CNN-LSTM to improve the forecasting performance. These DL architectures are more popular and better than other machine learning (ML) models for time series electrical load prediction. Therefore, hourly-based energy data are collected from Jeju Island, South Korea, and applied for forecasting. We considered external features associated with meteorological conditions affecting energy. Two-year training and one-year testing data are preprocessed and arranged to reform the times series, which are then trained in each DL model. The forecasting results of the proposed ensemble model are evaluated by using mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Error metrics are compared with DL stand-alone models such as MLP, CNN, LSTM, and CNN-LSTM. Our ensemble model provides better performance than other forecasting models, providing minimum MAPE at 0.75%, and was proven to be inherently symmetric for forecasting time-series energy and demand data, which is of utmost concern to the power system sector.

The next-day load forecasting is complex due to the load pattern variations driven by external factors, such as weather and time. This study proposes a hybrid model that incorporates the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) with pruning conditions and a Deep Belief Network (DBN) to improve forecasting accuracy. The CART can recognize the load patterns by classifying similar groups with low variance, thus reducing the complexity of the forecasting model. The actual 48-period load data from the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) is used. The proposed model is compared with six widely used standalone forecasting benchmark models and provides better at the minimum 0.46% mean absolute percentage error. Moreover, the forecasting performance of DBN and the other four benchmark models are improved by using our hybrid approach.

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a pivotal role in the electricity industry because it helps reduce, generate, and operate costs by balancing supply and demand. Recently, the challenge in STLF has been the load variation that occurs in each period, day, and seasonality. This work proposes the bagging ensemble combining two machine learning (ML) models—linear regression (LR) and support vector regression (SVR). For comparative analysis, the performance of the proposed model is evaluated and compared with three advanced deep learning (DL) models, namely, the deep neural network (DNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), and hybrid convolutional neural network (CNN)+LSTM models. These models are trained and tested on the data collected from the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) with four different input features. The forecasting performance is measured considering mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean squared error (MSE) parameters. Using several input features, experimental results show that the integrated model provides better accuracy than others. Therefore, it can be revealed that our approach could improve accuracy using different data in different forecasting fields.