In 2018, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources conducted the Sustainable Timber Harvest Analysis that resulted in the 10-year Stand Exam List (SEL). The SEL includes stands that will be assessed for potential management action from 2021 to 2030, but the location, number, and impact of stands actually harvested remains unknown. This study sought to use modeling to assess potential habitat changes from the SEL for five threatened, endangered, or special concern wildlife species. Three simulation scenarios captured the potential range of harvest from the SEL, and the Wildlife Habitat Indicator for Native Genera and Species model assessed associated habitat changes. The most realistic simulation scenario resulted in statistically insignificant habitat changes of less than ±6%, while two scenarios providing the upper and lower extremes of harvest resulted in statistically significant changes for one species each. Scenarios that resulted in less harvest and more mature forests benefited the five species, reflecting their habitat preferences. The tempering of habitat change values in the most realistic simulation scenario provides evidence for forest management tradeoffs between different wildlife species habitat requirements, as well as other forest resource management objectives.

Forest management and planning efforts often account for many resource objectives and benefits, including wildlife habitat. In particular, newly approved management goals and harvest targets on state lands in Minnesota were examined for their potential impact on wildlife habitat. Using a list of stands planned for potential harvest and a regional wildlife habitat model, habitat effects were assessed for 173 native, forest-dependent wildlife species on state lands. Leveraging forest type– and region-specific harvest probabilities and post-examination lag times to harvest, three simulation efforts covering the spectrum of possible outcomes were used to estimate habitat change from 2020 to 2030. In the most realistic simulation, 31.8% of species exhibited statistically significant positive habitat change, 11.6% significant negative change, and 56.6% nonsignificant or no change. Compared with simulations reflecting more extreme levels of harvest, the realistic simulation showed the greatest compromise between negative and positive shifts in habitat. Results reflect tradeoffs in wildlife habitat preferences such that changes in management that positively affect certain species often negatively affect others. Tradeoffs may be addressed by providing flexibility to individual managers where a targeted prescription is justified for a specific species, all while continuing broad statewide forest management goals.

Many forestry models require the input of stand size class information, a variable with multiple definitions across forest inventories. This work describes a crosswalk between stand age class and stand size class for several forest type groups in Minnesota to facilitate consistency and availability of the latter information. Refinements to the crosswalk include ratio adjustments that redistribute the number of plots (or hectares) from one estimated size class to another, based on known crosswalk error rates. The results showed that 61.9% of all plots were correctly classified, and 95.5% were within one size class. Correct classifications for individual forest type/size class combinations ranged from 16.7–79.2%. Applying the crosswalk to a validation dataset produced percent errors from −46.4% to 49.4%, but with the ratio adjustment, errors dropped to −20.1% to 14.4%. These results suggest that the crosswalk and ratio adjustments provide a coarse, yet reasonable, substitute to using more complex stand size classification methodologies, particularly when forecasting future stand conditions.