In a population with ongoing vaccination, the trajectory of a pandemic is determined by how the virus spreads in unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals that exhibit distinct transmission dynamics based on different levels of natural and vaccine-induced immunity. We developed a mathematical model that considers both subpopulations and immunity parameters, including vaccination rates, vaccine effectiveness, and a gradual loss of protection. The model forecasted the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant in the US under varied transmission and vaccination rates. We further obtained the control reproduction number and conducted sensitivity analyses to determine how each parameter may affect virus transmission. Although our model has several limitations, the number of infected individuals was shown to be a magnitude greater (~10×) in the unvaccinated subpopulation compared to the vaccinated subpopulation. Our results show that a combination of strengthening vaccine-induced immunity and preventative behavioral measures like face mask-wearing and contact tracing will likely be required to deaccelerate the spread of infectious SARS-CoV-2 variants.

The balance between pro- and anti-inflammatory immune system responses is crucial to preventing complex diseases like cancer. Macrophages are essential immune cells that contribute to this balance constrained by the local signaling profile of the tumor microenvironment. To understand how pro- and anti-inflammatory unbalance emerges in cancer, we developed a theoretical analysis of macrophage differentiation that is derived from activated monocytes circulating in the blood. Once recruited to the site of inflammation, monocytes can be polarized based on the specific interleukins and chemokines in the microenvironment. To quantify this process, we used a previous regulatory network reconstructed by our group and transformed Boolean Network attractors of macrophage polarization to an ODE scheme, it enables us to quantify the activation of their genes in a continuous fashion. The transformation was developed using the interaction rules with a fuzzy logic approach. By implementing this approach, we analyzed different aspects that cannot be visualized in the Boolean setting. For example, this approach allows us to explore the dynamic behavior at different concentrations of cytokines and transcription factors in the microenvironment. One important aspect to assess is the evaluation of the transitions between phenotypes, some of them characterized by an abrupt or a gradual transition depending on specific concentrations of exogenous cytokines in the tumor microenvironment. For instance, IL-10 can induce a hybrid state that transits between an M2c and an M2b macrophage. Interferon- γ can induce a hybrid between M1 and M1a macrophage. We further demonstrated the plasticity of macrophages based on a combination of cytokines and the existence of hybrid phenotypes or partial polarization. This mathematical model allows us to unravel the patterns of macrophage differentiation based on the competition of expression of transcriptional factors. Finally, we survey how macrophages may respond to a continuously changing immunological response in a tumor microenvironment.

In late 2019, a new virus, SARS-CoV-2, emerged in Wuhan, China, causing COVID-19 and the subsequent global pandemic. As of 30 April 2023, more than 774 million cases of COVID-19 had been reported worldwide, including over 7.5 million in Mexico. Despite advances in vaccination, epidemic surges of COVID-19 continued to occur globally, highlighting the importance of sharing and disseminating the experiences gained during these first years to better understand the virus’s evolution and respond accordingly. For this reason, the National Council for Science and Technology (CONACYT) organized the meeting “Challenges and Opportunities for Genomic Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico” from 15 to 17 August 2022, to present the efforts and results accumulated over more than two years of the pandemic. In this meeting report, we summarize the key findings of each participant and provide their contact information.