In 2014, the International Myeloma Working Group reclassified patients with smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) and bone marrow-plasma cell percentage (BMPC%) ≥ 60%, or serum free light chain ratio (FLCr) ≥ 100 or >1 focal lesion on magnetic resonance imaging as multiple myeloma (MM). Predictors of progression in patients currently classified as SMM are not known. We identified 421 patients with SMM, diagnosed between 2003 and 2015. The median time to progression (TTP) was 57 months (CI, 45–72). BMPC% > 20% [hazard ratio (HR): 2.28 (CI, 1.63–3.20); p < 0.0001]; M-protein > 2g/dL [HR: 1.56 (CI, 1.11–2.20); p = 0.01], and FLCr > 20 [HR: 2.13 (CI, 1.55–2.93); p < 0.0001] independently predicted shorter TTP in multivariate analysis. Age and immunoparesis were not significant. We stratified patients into three groups: low risk (none of the three risk factors; n = 143); intermediate risk (one of the three risk factors; n = 121); and high risk (≥2 of the three risk factors; n = 153). The median TTP for low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups were 110, 68, and 29 months, respectively (p < 0.0001). BMPC% > 20%, M-protein > 2 g/dL, and FLCr > 20 at diagnosis can be used to risk stratify patients with SMM. Patients with high-risk SMM need close follow-up and are candidates for clinical trials aiming to prevent progression.

Proliferative chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (pCMML), an aggressive CMML subtype, is associated with dismal outcomes. RAS pathway mutations, mainly NRAS^G12D, define the pCMML phenotype as demonstrated by our exome sequencing, progenitor colony assays and a Vav-Cre-Nras^G12D mouse model. Further, these mutations promote CMML transformation to acute myeloid leukemia. Using a multiomics platform and biochemical and molecular studies we show that in pCMML RAS pathway mutations are associated with a unique gene expression profile enriched in mitotic kinases such as polo-like kinase 1 (PLK1). PLK1 transcript levels are shown to be regulated by an unmutated lysine methyl-transferase (KMT2A) resulting in increased promoter monomethylation of lysine 4 of histone 3. Pharmacologic inhibition of PLK1 in RAS mutant patient-derived xenografts, demonstrates the utility of personalized biomarker-driven therapeutics in pCMML.

Risk stratification in multiple myeloma is important for prognostication, patient selection for clinical trials, and comparison of treatment approaches. We developed and validated a staging system that incorporates additional FISH abnormalities not included in the R-ISS and reflects the additive effects of co-occurring high-risk disease features. We first evaluated the prognostic value of predefined cytogenetic and laboratory abnormalities in 2556 Mayo Clinic patients diagnosed between February 2004 and June 2019. We then used data from 1327 patients to develop a risk stratification model and validated this in 502 patients enrolled in the MMRF CoMMpass study. On multivariate analysis, high-risk IgH translocations [risk ratio (RR): 1.7], 1q gain/amplification (RR: 1.4), chromosome17 abnormalities (RR: 1.6), ISS III (RR: 1.7), and elevated LDH (RR: 1.3) were independently associated with decreased overall survival (OS). Among 1327 evaluable patients, OS was 11.0 (95% CI: 9.2–12.6), 7.0 (95% CI: 6.3–9.2), and 4.5 (95% CI: 3.7–5.2) years in patients with 0 (stage I), 1 (stage II), and ≥2 (stage III) high-risk factors, respectively. In the MMRF cohort, median OS was 7.8 (95% CI: NR-NR), 6.0 (95% CI: 5.7-NR), and 4.3 (95% CI: 2.7-NR) years in the 3 groups, respectively (P < 0.001). This 5-factor, 3-tier system is easy to implement in practice and improves upon the current R-ISS.

Fluorescencein situhybridization evaluation is essential for initial risk stratification in multiple myeloma. While the presence of specific cytogenetic high-risk abnormalities (HRA) is known to confer a poor prognosis, less is known about the cumulative effect of multiple HRA. We studied 1181 patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma who received novel agents as first-line therapy. High-risk abnormalities were defined as t(4;14), t(14;16), t(14;20) and del(17p). There were 884 patients (75%) without any HRA and 297 patients (25%) with HRA, including 262 (22%) with one HRA and 35 (3%) with two HRA. The presence of one HRA (versus zero, hazard ratio (HR) 1.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.32–2.05,p<0.001) and the presence of two HRA (versus zero, HR 3.15, 95% CI 2.00–4.96,p<0.001) were of prognostic significance after adjusting for other prognostic factors. Abnormalities of chromosome 13 were of prognostic significance independent of the established HRA: Monosomy 13 (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.04–1.56,P=0.022) and del(13q) (HR 0.48, 95% CI 0.28–0.81,P=0.006) with opposite effects. Patients with HRA experienced worse overall survival suggesting a cumulative adverse effect of multiple HRA. Abnormalities of chromosome 13 were of prognostic significance after adjusting for other prognostic factors.