Echo chambers in online social networks, in which users prefer to interact only with ideologically-aligned peers, are believed to facilitate misinformation spreading and contribute to radicalize political discourse. In this paper, we gauge the effects of echo chambers in information spreading phenomena over political communication networks. Mining 12 million Twitter messages, we reconstruct a network in which users interchange opinions related to the impeachment of the former Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff. We define a continuous political leaning parameter, independent of the network’s structure, that allows to quantify the presence of echo chambers in the strongly connected component of the network. These are reflected in two well-separated communities of similar sizes with opposite views of the impeachment process. By means of simple spreading models, we show that the capability of users in propagating the content they produce, measured by the associated spreading capacity, strongly depends on their attitude. Users expressing pro-impeachment leanings are capable to transmit information, on average, to a larger audience than users expressing anti-impeachment leanings. Furthermore, the users’ spreading capacity is correlated to the diversity, in terms of political position, of the audience reached. Our method can be exploited to identify the presence of echo chambers and their effects across different contexts and shed light upon the mechanisms allowing to break echo chambers.

On 31 December, 2019, an outbreak of a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, that causes the COVID-19 disease, was first reported in Hubei, mainland China. This epidemics’ health threat is probably one of the biggest challenges faced by our interconnected modern societies. According to the epidemiological reports, the large basic reproduction number $R_0\sim 3.0$, together with a huge fraction of asymptomatic infections, paved the way for a major crisis of the national health capacity systems. Here, we develop an age-stratified mobility-based metapopulation model that encapsulates the main particularities of the spreading of COVID-19 regarding (i) its transmission among individuals, (ii) the specificities of certain demographic groups with respect to the impact of COVID-19, and (iii) the human mobility patterns inside and among regions. The full dynamics of the epidemic is formalized in terms of a microscopic Markov chain approach that incorporates the former elements and the possibility of implementing containment measures based on social distancing and confinement. With this model, we study the evolution of the effective reproduction number $\mathcal{R}(t)$, the key epidemiological parameter to track the evolution of the transmissibility and the effects of containment measures, as it quantifies the number of secondary infections generated by an infected individual. The suppression of the epidemic is directly related to this value and is attained when $\mathcal{R}<1$. We find an analytical expression connecting $\mathcal{R}$ with nonpharmacological interventions, and its phase diagram is presented. We apply this model at the municipality level in Spain, successfully forecasting the observed incidence and the number of fatalities in the country at each of its regions. The expression for $\mathcal{R}$ should assist policymakers to evaluate the epidemics’ response to actions, such as enforcing or relaxing confinement and social distancing.

An outbreak of a novel coronavirus, named SARS-CoV-2, that provokes the COVID-19 disease, was first reported in Hubei, mainland China on 31 December 2019. As of 20 March 2020, cases have been reported in 166 countries/regions, including cases of human-to-human transmission around the world. The proportions of this epidemics is probably one of the largest challenges faced by our interconnected modern societies. According to the current epidemiological reports, the large basic reproduction number, R ₀ ∼ 2.3, number of secondary cases produced by an infected individual in a population of susceptible individuals, as well as an asymptomatic period (up to 14 days) in which infectious individuals are undetectable without further analysis, pave the way for a major crisis of the national health capacity systems. Recent scientific reports have pointed out that the detected cases of COVID19 at young ages is strikingly short and that lethality is concentrated at large ages. Here we adapt a Microscopic Markov Chain Approach (MMCA) metapopulation mobility model to capture the spread of COVID-19. We propose a model that stratifies the population by ages, and account for the different incidences of the disease at each strata. The model is used to predict the incidence of the epidemics in a spatial population through time, permitting investigation of control measures. The model is applied to the current epidemic in Spain, using the estimates of the epidemiological parameters and the mobility and demographic census data of the national institute of statistics (INE). The results indicate that the peak of incidence will happen in the first half of April 2020 in absence of mobility restrictions. These results can be refined with improved estimates of epidemiological parameters, and can be adapted to precise mobility restrictions at the level of municipalities. The current estimates largely compromises the Spanish health capacity system, in particular that for intensive care units, from the end of March. However, the model allows for the scrutiny of containment measures that can be used for health authorities to forecast with accuracy their impact in prevalence of COVID–19. Here we show by testing different epidemic containment scenarios that we urge to enforce total lockdown to avoid a massive collapse of the Spanish national health system.

We provide numerical evidence for slow dynamics of the susceptible-infected-susceptible model evolving on finite-size random networks with power-law degree distributions. Extensive simulations were done by averaging the activity density over many realizations of networks. We investigated the effects of outliers in both highly fluctuating (natural cutoff) and nonfluctuating (hard cutoff) most connected vertices. Logarithmic and power-law decays in time were found for natural and hard cutoffs, respectively. This happens in extended regions of the control parameter space ${\lambda }_1<\lambda <{\lambda }_2$, suggesting Griffiths effects, induced by the topological inhomogeneities. Optimal fluctuation theory considering sample-to-sample fluctuations of the pseudothresholds is presented to explain the observed slow dynamics. A quasistationary analysis shows that response functions remain bounded at ${\lambda }_2$. We argue these to be signals of a smeared transition. However, in the thermodynamic limit the Griffiths effects loose their relevancy and have a conventional critical point at ${\lambda }_c=0$. Since many real networks are composed by heterogeneous and weakly connected modules, the slow dynamics found in our analysis of independent and finite networks can play an important role for the deeper understanding of such systems.

A central feature of an emerging infectious disease in a pandemic scenario is the spread through geographical scales and the impacts on different locations according to the adopted mitigation protocols. We investigated a stochastic epidemic model with the metapopulation approach in which patches represent municipalities. Contagion follows a stochastic compartmental model for municipalities; the latter, in turn, interact with each other through recurrent mobility. As a case of study, we consider the epidemic of COVID-19 in Brazil performing data-driven simulations. Properties of the simulated epidemic curves have very broad distributions across different geographical locations and scales, from states, passing through intermediate and immediate regions down to municipality levels. Correlations between delay of the epidemic outbreak and distance from the respective capital cities were predicted to be strong in several states and weak in others, signaling influences of multiple epidemic foci propagating toward the inland cities. Responses of different regions to the same mitigation protocol can vary enormously, implying that the policies of combating the epidemics must be engineered according to the region's specificity but integrated with the overall situation. Real series of reported cases confirm the qualitative scenarios predicted in simulations. Even though we restricted our study to Brazil, the prospects and model can be extended to other geographical organizations with heterogeneous demographic distributions.