Background: The decision of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) initiation and/or repetition remains challenging in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim was to develop a prognostic scoring system to guide TACE initiation/repetition. Methods: A total of 597 consecutive patients who underwent TACE as their initial treatment for unresectable HCC were included. We derived a prediction model using independent risk factors for overall survival (OS), which was externally validated in an independent cohort (n = 739). Results: Independent risk factors of OS included Albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, maximal tumor size, alpha-fetoprotein, and tumor response to initial TACE, which were used to develop a scoring system (“ASAR”). C-index values for OS were 0.733 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.570–0.871) in the derivation, 0.700 (95% CI = 0.445–0.905) in the internal validation, and 0.680 (95% CI = 0.652–0.707) in the external validation, respectively. Patients with ASAR< 4 showed significantly longer OS than patients with ASAR≥4 in all three datasets (all P < 0.001). Among Child-Pugh class B patients, a modified model without TACE response, i.e., “ASA(R)”, discriminated OS with a c-index of 0.788 (95% CI, 0.703–0.876) in the derivation, and 0.745 (95% CI, 0.646–0.862) in the internal validation, and 0.670 (95% CI, 0.605–0.725) in the external validation, respectively. Child-Pugh B patients with ASA(R) < 4 showed significantly longer OS than patients with ASA(R) ≥ 4 in all three datasets (all P < 0.001). Conclusions: ASAR provides refined prognostication for repetition of TACE in patients with unresectable HCC. For Child-Pugh class B patients, a modified model with baseline factors might guide TACE initiation.

Background: For patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the definition of refractoriness to transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), which might make them a candidate for systemic therapy, is still controversial. We aimed to derive and validate a tumor marker-based algorithm to define the refractoriness to TACE in patients with intermediate-stage HCC. Methods: This multi-cohort study was comprised of patients who underwent TACE for treatment-naïve intermediate-stage HCC. We derived a prediction model for overall survival (OS) using the pre- and post-TACE model to predict tumor recurrence after living donor liver transplantation (MoRAL) (i.e., MoRAL score = 11×√protein induced by vitamin K absence-II + 2×√alpha-fetoprotein), which was proven to reflect both tumor burden and biologic aggressiveness of HCC in the explant liver, from a training cohort (n = 193). These results were externally validated in both an independent hospital cohort (from two large-volume centers, n = 140) and a Korean National Cancer Registry sample cohort (n = 149). Results: The changes in MoRAL score (ΔMoRAL) after initial TACE was an independent predictor of OS (MoRAL-increase vs. MoRAL-non-increase: adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 2.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.37–3.46, p = 0.001; median OS = 18.8 vs. 37.8 months). In a subgroup of patients with a high baseline MoRAL score (≥89.5, 25th percentile and higher), the prognostic impact of ΔMoRAL was more pronounced (MoRAL-increase vs. MoRAL-non-increase: HR = 3.68, 95% CI = 1.54–8.76, p < 0.001; median OS = 9.9 vs. 37.4 months). These results were reproduced in the external validation cohorts. Conclusion: The ΔMoRAL after the first TACE, a simple and objective index, provides refined prognostication for patients with intermediate-stage HCC. Proceeding to a second TACE may not provide additional survival benefits in cases of a MoRAL-increase after the first TACE in patients with a high baseline MoRAL score (≥89.5), who might be candidates for systemic therapy.

Trans-arterial radioembolization (TARE) is a form of radiation therapy performed for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) via selective intra-arterial injection of Yttrium-90-loaded microspheres. This was a multi-center retrospective study of consecutive patients with HCC who underwent TARE between July 2009 and May 2019. Using pre-treatment computed tomography imaging, the total cross-sectional area (cm²) of the abdominal skeletal muscle at the third lumbar vertebra was measured. The skeletal muscle index (SMI) was calculated by normalizing the muscle area to patient height. In total, 347 patients (median age, 65 years; 284 male) were included in the study. A total of 108 (31.1%) patients had portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT), and 126 (36.3%) were classified as LSMM. The median overall survival (OS) was 28.1 months (95% CI, 24.8–35.7), and median progression-free survival was 8.0 months (95% CI, 6.4–9.4). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that LSMM (hazard ratio [HR], 1.36; 95% CI, 1.00–1.85, p = 0.05), PVTT (HR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.33–2.49, p < 0.01), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (≥200 ng/mL) (HR 1.41; 95% CI, 1.04–1.92, p = 0.03), and albumin–bilirubin grade (2–3) (HR 1.74; 95% CI, 1.24–2.43, p < 0.01) were independently associated with poor OS. TARE provided favorable long-term outcomes for patients with advanced HCC. Pre-treatment LSMM independently associated with survival, suggesting its utility as a surrogate biomarker for identifying TARE candidates.

Trans-arterial radioembolization (TARE) is a form of radiation therapy performed for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) via selective intra-arterial injection of Yttrium-90 loaded microspheres. This was a multicenter retrospective study of consecutive patients with HCC who underwent TARE between July 2009 and May 2019. Using pre-treatment computed tomography imaging, the total cross-sectional area (cm2) of the abdominal skeletal muscle at the third lumbar vertebra was measured. The skeletal muscle index (SMI) was calculated by normalizing the muscle area to patient height. In total, 347 patients (median age, 65 years; 284 male) were included in the study. A total of 108 (31.1%) patients had portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT) and 126 (36.3%) were classified as sarcopenic. The median overall survival (OS) was 28.1 months (95% CI, 24.8-35.7) and median progression-free survival was 8.0 months (95% CI, 6.4-9.4). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that sarcopenia (hazard ratio [HR], 1.36; 95% CI, 1.00-1.85, p = 0.05), PVTT (HR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.33-2.49, p < 0.01), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (≥200 ng/mL) (HR 1.41; 95% CI, 1.04-1.92, p = 0.03), and albumin-bilirubin grade (2-3) (HR 1.74; 95% CI, 1.24-2.43, p < 0.01) were independently associated with poor OS. TARE provided favorable long-term outcomes for patients with advanced HCC. Pre-treatment sarcopenia independently associated with survival, suggesting its utility as a surrogate biomarker for identifying TARE candidates.