Land use change plays a crucial role in global environmental change. Understanding the mode and land use change procedure is conducive to improving the quality of the global eco-environment and promoting the harmonized development of human–land relationships. Large river basins play an important role in areal socioeconomic development. The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is an important ecological protective screen, economic zone, and major grain producing area in China, which faces challenges with respect to ecological degradation and water and sediment management. Simulating the alterations in ecosystem service value (ESV) owing to land use change in the YRB under multiple scenarios is of great importance to guaranteeing the ecological security of the basin and improve the regional ESV. According to the land use data of 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2018, the alterations in the land use and ESV in the YRB over the past 30 years were calculated and analyzed on the basis of six land use types: cultivated land, forestland, grassland, water area, built-up land, and unused land. The patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was used to simulate the land use change in the study area under three scenarios (natural development, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection in 2026); estimate the ESV under each scenario; and conduct a comparative analysis. We found that the land use area in the YRB changed significantly during the study period. The ESV of the YRB has slowly increased by ~USD 15 billion over the past 30 years. The ESV obtained under the ecological protection scenario is the highest. The simulation of the YRB’s future land use change, and comparison and analysis of the ESV under different scenarios, provide guidance and a scientific basis for promoting ecological conservation and high-quality development of river basins worldwide.

Land-use change is a global issue, and the built-up land expansion has affected the ecological landscape patterns of the major river basins in the world. However, measurement of the ecological risks of potential landscape and identification of the dynamic relationships by natural and human-driven built-up land expansion at different zoning scales are still less understood. Based on multi-period Landsat satellite image data, we combined remote sensing (RS) and geography information systems (GIS) technologies with Spatial Durbin Panel Model to quantitatively analyze the landscape ecological effects under the built-up land expansion in the Yellow River Basin. The results showed that there is spatial heterogeneity in the built-up land expansion and ecological security patterns, with the expansion gravity center gradually spreading from the downstream to the middle and upstream areas, and the most dramatic change in landscape patches of ecological safety patterns occurring around the year 2000. At different zoning scales, there is a spatial spillover effect on the interaction between built-up land expansion and ecological security, with the significance of the regression estimates decreasing from large sample sizes to small sample sizes. Our findings highlighted the importance of spatial heterogeneity at different zoning scales in identifying the dynamic relationship between built-up land expansion and ecological security, scientific planning of land resources, and mitigation of ecological and environmental crises.

Background: Conducting an extensive study on the spatial heterogeneity of the overall carbon budget and its influencing factors and the decoupling status of carbon emissions from economic development, by undertaking simulation projections under different carbon emission scenarios is crucial for China to achieve its targets to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. There are large disparities in carbon emissions from energy consumption, the extent of land used for carbon absorption, and the status of decoupling of emissions from economic development, among various regions of China. Results: Based on night light data and land use data, we investigated carbon budget through model estimation, decoupling analysis, and scenario simulation. The results show that the carbon deficit had a continuous upward trend from 2000 to 2018, and there was a significant positive spatial correlation. The overall status of decoupling first improved and then deteriorated. Altogether, energy consumption intensity, population density of built-up land, and built-up land area influenced the decoupling of carbon emissions from economic development. There are significant scenarios of carbon emissions from energy consumption for the study area during the forecast period, only in the low-carbon scenario will the study area reach the expected carbon emissions peak ahead of schedule in 2027; the peak carbon emissions will be 6479.27 million tons. Conclusions: China’s provincial-scale carbon emissions show a positive correlation with economic development within the study period. It is necessary to optimize the economic structure, transforming the economic development mode, and formulating policies to control the expansion of built-up land. Efforts must be made to improve technology and promote industrial restructuring, to effectively reduce energy consumption intensity.

Food security is crucial to world peace. Economic development has posed a great threat to the protection of cultivated land. Considering 20 cities in the lower Yellow River (AALYR) as the study area, this study explored the spatial evolution of cultivated land pressure (CLP) and economic development from 1998 to 2018, revealing the spatiotemporal coupling characteristics of the CLP index and economic development. The main results are as follows: we discerned that CLP and economic development have an obvious spatiotemporal consistency during 1998–2018. The CLP showed a spatial pattern of overall stability, as well as local changes. Most prefecture-level cities experienced decreased significantly in CLP and improvements in food security. Overall, there were regional differences in the coupling relationships between CLP and economic development in the study area. The explanatory power of the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries were significantly higher than other driving factors. Therefore, while developing the economy rapidly, we should also protect cultivated land resources and improve the coordination level between them, which is essential to guarantee food security and a steady economic development.

Ecosystems offer a wide array of benefits to support human livelihoods and enhance quality of life. Quantitative evaluation of Ecosystem services (ESs) is crucial for achieving the goal of sustainable development. The Yellow River Basin has a large population, and there are contradictions and conflicts in ecological protection, resource utilization, and economic development, among which the downstream region is the most prominent. However, the ecosystem services selected in existing research are not comprehensive enough, and there are also few studies that further focus on the effects of urbanization on this basis. This paper calculated seven types of ESs based on the InVEST model and related methods, and then constructed a composite ecosystem service index (CESI), and studied its spatiotemporal evolution and response to urbanization indicators through bivariate spatial autocorrelation and spatial metrological models. We found that from 1990 to 2020, the CESI fluctuated and decreased with time, with a significant positive spatial correlation, but showed a weakening trend. There were differences in the evolution process of the spatial correlation between the CESI and population density, economic density, and land development degree, but ultimately the spatial correlation changed from positive to negative. In terms of spatial spillover effect, population density had a significant positive effect on the CESI, land development had a significant negative effect, and economic density had a weak spillover effect. This paper provides a certain reference basis for governments at all levels to formulate relevant strategies for environmental protection and economic development.