A better understanding of how menthol cigarette flavoring and ENDS impact smoking initiation, cessation, and transitions between tobacco products could help elucidate the potential impact of a US menthol ban in combustible tobacco products. A multistate transition model was applied to data on 23,232 adults from Waves 1–4 (2013–2017) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study (analysis conducted 2020–2021). Transition rates among never, non-current, non-menthol versus menthol cigarette, ENDS, and dual everyday/someday use were estimated, as were transition-specific hazard ratios (HRs) for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, and income. Non-Hispanic Blacks who smoked menthol, compared with non-menthol, discontinued smoking at a much lower rate (HR=0.43, 95% CI=0.29, 0.64), but there was no statistically significant difference in discontinuation rates among non-Hispanic Whites (HR=0.97, 95% CI=0.80, 1.16) or Hispanics (HR=0.81, 95% CI=0.56, 1.16). NHWs who smoked menthol, compared with non-menthol, were more likely to become dual users (HR=1.43, 95% CI=1.14, 1.80). Young adults initiated menthol smoking at a higher rate than older adults (age 18–24 years vs ≥55 years: HR=2.45, 95% CI=1.44, 4.15) but not non-menthol smoking (HR=1.02, 95% CI=0.62, 1.69). There were differences by sex in the impact of menthol flavor on smoking initiation and discontinuation but little difference by education or income. Sociodemographic differences in product transitions should be accounted for when estimating the potential impact of a menthol ban.