Tuberculosis in children is increasingly recognised as an important component of the global tuberculosis burden, with an estimated 1 million cases in 2015. Although younger children are vulnerable to severe forms of tuberculosis disease, no age-disaggregated estimates of paediatric tuberculosis mortality exist, and tuberculosis has never been included in official estimates of under-5 child mortality. We aimed to produce a global mortality burden estimate in children using a complementary approach not dependent on vital registration data. In this mathematical modelling study, we estimated deaths in children younger than 5 years and those aged 5-14 years for 217 countries and territories using a case-fatality-based approach. We used paediatric tuberculosis notification data and HIV and antiretroviral treatment estimates to disaggregate the WHO paediatric tuberculosis incidence estimates by age, HIV, and treatment status. We then applied systematic review evidence on corresponding case-fatality ratios. We estimated that 239 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 194 000-298 000) children younger than 15 years died from tuberculosis worldwide in 2015; 80% (191 000, 95% UI 132 000-257 000) of these deaths were in children younger than 5 years. More than 70% (182 000, 140 000-239 000) of deaths occurred in the WHO southeast Asia and Africa regions. We estimated that 39 000 (17%, 23 000-73 000) paediatric tuberculosis deaths worldwide were in children with HIV infections, with 31 000 (36%, 19 000-59 000) in the WHO Africa region. More than 96% (230 000, 185 000-289 000) of all tuberculosis deaths occurred in children not receiving tuberculosis treatment. Tuberculosis is a top ten cause of death in children worldwide and a key omission from previous analyses of under-5 mortality. Almost all these deaths occur in children not on tuberculosis treatment, implying substantial scope to reduce this burden. UNITAID, National Institutes of Health, and National Institute for Health Research.

The co-occupancy of Tcf3 with Oct4, Sox2 and Nanog on embryonic stem cell (ESC) chromatin indicated that Tcf3 has been suggested to play an integral role in a poorly understood mechanism underlying Wnt-dependent stimulation of mouse ESC self-renewal of mouse ESCs. Although the conventional view of Tcf proteins as the β-catenin-binding effectors of Wnt signalling suggested Tcf3–β-catenin activation of target genes would stimulate self-renewal, here we show that an antagonistic relationship between Wnt3a and Tcf3 on gene expression regulates ESC self-renewal. Genetic ablation of Tcf3 replaced the requirement for exogenous Wnt3a or GSK3 inhibition for ESC self-renewal, demonstrating that inhibition of Tcf3 repressor is the necessary downstream effect of Wnt signalling. Interestingly, both Tcf3–β-catenin and Tcf1–β-catenin interactions contributed to Wnt stimulation of self-renewal and gene expression, and the combination of Tcf3 and Tcf1 recruited Wnt-stabilized β-catenin to Oct4 binding sites on ESC chromatin. This work elucidates the molecular link between the effects of Wnt and the regulation of the Oct4/Sox2/Nanog network.

Case fatality ratios in children with tuberculosis are poorly understood-particularly those among children with HIV and children not receiving tuberculosis treatment. We did a systematic review of published work to identify studies of population-representative samples of paediatric (ie, <15 years) tuberculosis cases. We searched PubMed and Embase for reports published in English, French, Portuguese, or Spanish before Aug 12, 2016, that included terms related to tuberculosis, children, mortality, and population representativeness. We also reviewed our own files and reference lists of articles identified by this search. We screened titles and abstracts for inclusion, excluding studies in which outcomes were unknown for 10% or more of the children and publications detailing non-representative samples. We used random-effects meta-analysis to produce pooled estimates of case fatality ratios from the included studies, which we divided into three eras: the pre-treatment era (ie, studies before 1946), the middle era (1946-80), and the recent era (after 1980). We stratified our analyses by whether or not children received tuberculosis treatment, age (0-4 years, 5-14 years), and HIV status. We identified 31 papers comprising 35 datasets representing 82 436 children with tuberculosis disease, of whom 9274 died. Among children with tuberculosis included in studies in the pre-treatment era, the pooled case fatality ratio was 21·9% (95% CI 18·1-26·4) overall. The pooled case fatality ratio was significantly higher in children aged 0-4 years (43·6%, 95% CI 36·8-50·6) than in those aged 5-14 years (14·9%, 11·5-19·1). In studies in the recent era, when most children had tuberculosis treatment, the pooled case fatality ratio was 0·9% (95% CI 0·5-1·6). US surveillance data suggest that the case fatality ratio is substantially higher in children with HIV receiving treatment for tuberculosis (especially without antiretroviral therapy) than in those without HIV. Without adequate treatment, children with tuberculosis, especially those younger than 5 years, are at high risk of death. Children with HIV have an increased mortality risk, even when receiving tuberculosis treatment. US National Institutes of Health, Janssen Global Public Health.

Contact investigations among individuals living with drug-susceptible tuberculosis patients (source cases) have shown a high yield of tuberculosis disease and latent tuberculosis, but the yield of such investigations in households of drug-resistant tuberculosis source cases is unknown. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we found 25 studies that evaluated a median of 111 (interquartile range, 21–302) household contacts of drug-resistant tuberculosis source cases. The pooled yield was 7.8% (95% CI, 5.6%–10.0%) for active tuberculosis and 47.2% (95% CI, 30.0%–61.4%) for latent tuberculosis, although there was significant statistical heterogeneity (P < .0001). More than 50% of secondary cases with drug susceptibility test results were concordant with those of the source case. Among studies that followed household members, the majority of secondary cases were detected within 1 year of the source case's diagnosis. Household contact investigation around drug-resistant tuberculosis patients is a high-yield intervention for detection of drug-resistant tuberculosis and prevention of ongoing transmission.