In the global maritime industry, ship grounding represents about one-third of commercial groundings. Grounding is a type of accident where the hull of a ship strikes the seabed, causing damage to the hull. This type of accident can lead to damage to the hull and water penetration, but also to the pollution of the marine environment by the spillage of ship fuel or some liquid cargo carried by the ship. This paper presents a chronological overview of the contribution of ship grounding frequency, where one of the first ideas of grounding probability was presented by Macduff (1974) and Fuji (1974) in their models. Their ideas, such as grounding candidates and causing probability, laid the foundation for the development of future models. After their models, years later, other models continued to be developed; e.g., analytically (Macduff, Fujii, Amrowitcz, etc.) and statistically (Pedersen, Simonsen, etc.). To find the probability of grounding in an area of interest or in a scenario, it is necessary to have the number of grounding candidates and the causing probability. There are different internal and external factors that affect both probabilities, and in this paper, we analyze how various authors approach their grounding models and have tried to show the actual event as faithfully as possible and thus contribute to greater safety in maritime transport. The number of grounding frequency models significantly complicates their selection in practice; accordingly, the review of models in this paper should facilitate this, but also it should facilitate future research on this topic.
Ship grounding is one of the most common and devastating maritime accidents. This article aims to present a retrospective review of models used to estimate the frequency of such incidents. Given the increasing growth of maritime traffic, this is the type of maritime accident that today’s modern science should better address and present modern solutions to minimize such accidents. Numerous grounding risk assessment models have been developed throughout the history of maritime research, contributing significantly to the reduction of ship grounding incidents. However, while research and related models on this topic are abundant, they are often unstructured and fragmented, lacking detailed and comprehensive analysis necessary to clearly identify key shortcomings and areas for improvement. A thorough search of relevant databases was conducted to better capture academic articles and general publications addressing the estimation of ship grounding frequency. Using the bibliographic mapping capabilities of the VOSviewer software, the study identified research clusters related to grounding issues. The inclusion of bibliometric analysis enhances this article by providing a comprehensive overview of the literature and highlighting the researchers who have made the most significant contributions to the development of ship grounding assessment models—thus laying the groundwork for future advancements.