Using regionally downscaled and adjusted outputs of three global climate models (GCMs), meteorological drought analysis was accomplished across Ankara, the capital city of Turkey. To this end, standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were projected under (representative concentration pathway) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios. In general, our results show that Ankara experienced six severe and two extreme drought events during the reference period, 1971–2000. However, the projections indicate fewer drought events for the near future period of 2016–2040, with no potential extreme drought events. While the RCP4.5 scenario showed that dry spells will be dominant in the second half of the near future period, the RCP8.5 scenario projected that dry spells will be evenly distributed during the entire near future period.

Groundwater recharge in arid regions is intermittent and usually occurs as a result of flood flow transmission losses in dry wadi channels. Hydrograph characteristics play a dominant role in determining the amount of channel abstraction in relation to the width of the wetted perimeter and the time of inundation, and the subsequent groundwater recharge. Large variations in the magnitude of channel losses result mainly from the diversity in inflow volumes. The magnitude of groundwater recharge in relation to bed transmission losses is dependent on flood volume and duration, soil moisture content and physical soil profile characteristics. Runoff volume and duration are the dominant factors influencing the cumulative infiltrated volume and recharge to shallow water tables. Taking into consideration the influence of various hydrological and channel characteristics, several regression equations are suggested to estimate the transmission losses from a wadi bed and the groundwater recharge.

Climate change, one of the major environmental challenges facing mankind, has caused intermittent droughts in many regions resulting in reduced water resources. This study investigated the impact of climate change on the characteristics (occurrence, duration, and severity) of meteorological drought across Ankara, Turkey. To this end, the observed monthly rainfall series from five meteorology stations scattered across Ankara Province as well as dynamically downscaled outputs of three global climate models that run under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios was used to attain the well-known SPI series during the reference period of 1986–2018 and the future period of 2018–2050, respectively. Analyzing drought features in two time periods generally indicated the higher probability of occurrence of drought in the future period. The results showed that the duration of mild droughts may increase, and extreme droughts will occur with longer durations and larger severities. Moreover, joint return period analysis through different copula functions revealed that the return period of mild droughts will remain the same in the near future, while it declines by 12% over extreme droughts in the near future.