This study analyses the Ukrainian energy system in the context of the Paris Agreement and the need for the world to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Despite ~84% of greenhouse gas emissions in Ukraine being energy- and process-related, there is very limited academic literature analysing long-term development of the Ukrainian energy system. This study utilises the TIMES-Ukraine model of the whole Ukrainian energy system to address this knowledge gap and to analyse how the energy system may develop until 2050, taking into current and future policies. The results show the development of the Ukrainian energy system based on energy efficiency improvements, electrification and renewable energy. The share of renewables in electricity production is predicted to reach between 45% and 57% in 2050 in the main scenarios with moderate emission reduction ambitions and ~80% in the ambitious alternative scenarios. The cost-optimal solution includes reduction of space heating demand in buildings by 20% in frozen policy and 70% in other scenarios, while electrification of industries leads to reductions in energy intensity of 26–36% in all scenarios except frozen policy. Energy efficiency improvements and emission reductions in the transport sector are achieved through increased use of electricity from 2020 in all scenarios except frozen policy, reaching 40–51% in 2050. The stated policies present a cost-efficient alternative for keeping Ukraine’s greenhouse gas emissions at today’s level.

Introduction. Despite uncertain terms and conditions of the post-war economic recovery of Ukraine, the resource-intensiveness and complexity of this task, its successful realization will create unique opportunities for the implementation of essential institutional reforms and radical structural economic transformations. Priorities and effective implementation mechanisms of such recovery policy shall be formulated with a consideration of the regional and global trends in socio-economic and societal transformations, such as transition to the low-carbon (carbon-neutral) development model. Problem Statement. The adoption of the national target on reducing GHG emissions in accordance with an updated Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement has set quantitative targets for the lowcarbon development for Ukraine. The next important task is to formulate the imperatives of thegovernment policy, as well as to identify the tasks and measures aiming at achieving the stated goal and the effective inclusion of Ukraine into the EU Green Deal during the post-war recovery. Purpose. The purpose of this research is to estimate targeted transformations of the energy and electricity balances and corresponding macroeconomic effects. Material and Methods. The effects ofachieving the climate goals have been evaluated in terms of economic factors, with the use of TIMES-Ukraine linear quasi-dynamic optimization energy system model. Results. Energy efficiency and renewable energy deployment, technology modernization with the corresponding redirection of investments in low-carbon technologies, as well as development of competitive integrated energy markets have been proposed as the main pillars of decarbonization of Ukraine’seconomy. Conclusions. Although the energy sector will play a key role in the post-war “green” recovery of Ukraine’s economy, the attention of the government shall not be limited within the sectoral framework, as the relevant effects are closely related to financial, social, fiscal, competitive, and infrastructure policies.