Jiayue Gu

Ms. Jiayue Gu

Tongji University
orcid

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

5Years (2022-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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7 February 2022 in Water
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
JGJiayue Gu
Jiayue Gu
SLShuguang Liu
Shuguang Liu
ZZZhengzheng Zhou
Zhengzheng Zhou
Sergey ChalovSergey Chalov
Sergey Chalov
QZQi Zhuang
Qi Zhuang
The prediction of monthly rainfall is greatly beneficial for water resources management and flood control projects. Machine learning (ML) techniques, as an increasingly popular approach, have been applied in diverse climatic regions, showing their respective superiority. On top of that, the ensemble learning model that synthesizes the advantages of different ML models deserves more attention. In this study, an ensemble learning model based on stacking approach was proposed. Four prevalent ML models, namely k-nearest neighbors (KNN), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), support vector regression (SVR), and artificial neural networks (ANN) are taken as base models. To combine the outputs from the base models, the weighting algorithm is used as second-layer learner to generate predictions. Large-scale climate indices, large-scale atmospheric variables, and local meteorological variables were used as predictors. R2, RMSE and MAE, were used as evaluation metrics. The results show that the performance of base models varied among the nine stations in the Taihu Basin, while the stacking approach generally performed better than the four base models. The stacking model showed better performance in spring and winter than in summer and autumn. During wet months, the accuracy of model prediction varied more significantly. On the whole, based on performance evaluation measures, it is concluded that the proposed stacking ensemble multi-ML model can provide a flexible and reasonable prediction framework applicable to other regions.