In recent years, the police intervention strategy “Hot spots policing” has been effective in combating crimes. However, as cities are under the intense pressure of increasing crime and scarce police resources, police patrols are expected to target more accurately at finer geographic units rather than ballpark “hot spot” areas. This study aims to develop an algorithm using geographic information to detect crime patterns at street level, the so-called “hot street”, to further assist the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) in capturing crime change and transitive moments efficiently. The algorithm applies Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) technique onto street networks, rather than traditional areal units, in one case study borough in London; it then maps the detected crime “hot streets” by crime type. It was found that the algorithm could successfully generate “hot street” maps for Law Enforcement Agencies (LEAs), enabling more effective allocation of police patrolling; and bear enough resilience itself for the Strategic Crime Analysis (SCA) team’s sustainable utilization, by either updating the inputs with latest data or modifying the model parameters (i.e. the kernel function, and the range of spillover). Moreover, this study explores contextual characteristics of crime “hot streets” by applying various regression models, in recognition of the best fitted Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model, encompassing eight significant contextual factors with their varied effects on crimes at different streets. Having discussed the impact of lockdown on crime rates, it was apparent that the land-use driven mobility change during lockdown was a fundamental reason for changes in crime. Overall, these research findings have provided evidence and practical suggestions for crime prevention to local governors and policy practitioners, through more optimal urban planning (e.g. Low Traffic Neighborhoods), proactive policing (e.g. in the listed top 10 “Hot Streets” of crime), publicizing of laws and regulations, and installations of security infrastructures (e.g. CCTV cameras and traffic signals).
With the emergence of new forms of geospatial/urban big data and advanced spatial analytics and machine learning methods, new patterns and phenomena can be explored and discovered in our cities and societies. In this special issue, we presented an overview of nine studies to understand how to use urban data science and GIS in healthcare services, hospitality and safety, transportation and mobility, economy, urban planning, higher education, and natural disasters, spreading across developed countries in North America and Europe, as well as Global South areas in Asia and the Middle East. The embrace of diverse geo-computational methods in this special issue brings forward an outlook to future GIS and Urban Data Science towards more advanced computational capability, global vision and urban-focused research.
Given the paramount impacts of COVID-19 on people’s lives in the capital of the UK, London, it was foreseeable that the city’s crime patterns would have undergone significant transformations, especially during lockdown periods. This study aims to testify the crime patterns’ changes in London, using data from March 2020 to March 2021 to explore the driving forces for such changes, and hence propose data-driven insights for policy makers and practitioners on London’s crime deduction and prevention potentiality in post-pandemic era. (1) Upon exploratory data analyses on the overall crime change patterns, an innovative BSTS model has been proposed by integrating restriction-level time series into the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model. This novel method allows the research to evaluate the varied effects of London’s three lockdown periods on local crimes among the regions of London. (2) Based on the predictive results from the BSTS modelling, three regression models were deployed to identify the driving forces for respective types of crime experiencing significant increases during lockdown periods. (3) The findings solidified research hypotheses on the distinct factors influencing London’s specific types of crime by period and by region. In light of the received evidence, insights on a modified policing allocation model and supporting the unemployed group was proposed in the aim of effectively mitigating the surges of crimes in London.