The methane chemical sink estimated by atmospheric chemistry models (bottom-up method) is significantly larger than estimates based on methyl chloroform (MCF) inversions (top-down method). The difference is partly attributable to large uncertainties in hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations simulated by the atmospheric chemistry models used to derive the bottom-up estimates. In this study, we propose a new approach based on OH precursor observations and a chemical box model. This approach contributes to improving the 3D distributions of tropospheric OH radicals obtained from atmospheric chemistry models and reconciling bottom-up and top-down estimates of the chemical loss of atmospheric methane. By constraining simulated OH precursors with observations, the global mean tropospheric column-averaged air-mass-weighted OH concentration ([OH]trop-M) is molec. cm−3 (which is 2×105 molec. cm−3 lower than the original model-simulated global [OH]trop-M) and agrees with that obtained by the top-down method based on MCF inversions. With OH constrained by precursor observations, the methane chemical loss is 471–508 Tg yr−1, averaged from 2000 to 2009. The new adjusted estimate is in the range of the latest top-down estimate of the Global Carbon Project (GCP) (459–516 Tg yr−1), contrary to the bottom-up estimates that use the original model-simulated OH fields (577–612 Tg yr−1). The overestimation of global [OH]trop-M and methane chemical loss simulated by the atmospheric chemistry models is caused primarily by the models' underestimation of carbon monoxide and total ozone column, and overestimation of nitrogen dioxide. Our results highlight that constraining the model-simulated OH fields with available OH precursor observations can help improve bottom-up estimates of the global methane sink.
9 December 2022 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
The atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) growth rate surged after 2019, peaking at 16.2 parts per billion per year (ppb year −1 ) in 2020 before declining to 8.6 ppb year −1 in 2023. Using multiple atmospheric inversions constrained by observation- and model-based prescribed hydroxyl radical (OH) fields and CH 4 atmospheric data, we show that a drop of OH radicals in 2020–2021, followed by recovery in 2022–2023, accounted for 83% of year-on-year variations in the CH 4 growth rate, the rest being explained by wetland and inland water emissions, which increased between 2019 and 2020–2022 [+8.6 ± 2.6 teragrams of CH 4 per year (TgCH 4 year −1 )] and then decreased between 2022 and 2023 (−9.9 ± 3.3 TgCH 4 year −1 ). Most emission changes from 2019 to 2023 occurred in northern tropical wetlands in Africa and Asia, whereas South American wetlands emissions declined and Arctic emissions increased after 2019.
8 March 2025 in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
The overestimation of surface ozone concentration in low‐resolution global atmospheric chemistry and climate models has been a long‐standing issue. We first update the ozone dry deposition scheme in both high‐ (0.25°) and low‐resolution (1°) Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.3 runs, by adding the effects of leaf area index and correcting the sunlit and shaded fractions of stomatal resistances. With this update, 5‐year‐long summer simulations (2015–2019) using the low‐resolution CESM still exhibit substantial ozone overestimation (by 6.0–16.2 ppbv) over the U.S., Europe, eastern China, and ozone pollution hotspots. The ozone dry deposition scheme is further improved by adjusting the leaf cuticle conductance, reducing the mean ozone bias by 19%, and increasing the model resolution further reduces the ozone overestimation by 43%. We elucidate the mechanism by which model grid spacing influences simulated ozone, revealing distinctive pathways in urban versus rural areas. In rural areas, grid spacing mainly affects daytime ozone levels, where additional NOx emissions from nearby urban areas result in an ozone boost and overestimation in low‐resolution simulations. In contrast, over urban areas, daytime ozone overestimation follows a similar mechanism due to the influence of volatile organic compounds from surrounding rural areas. However, nighttime ozone overestimation is closely linked to weakened NO titration owing to the redistribution of urban NOx to rural areas. Additionally, stratosphere‐troposphere exchange may also contribute to reducing ozone bias in high‐resolution simulations, warranting further investigation. This optimized high‐resolution CESM may enhance understanding of ozone formation mechanisms, sources, and changes in a warming climate.
Sichuan Province, the most industrialized and populated region in southwestern China, has been experiencing severe ozone pollution in the boreal warm season (April–September). With a surface ozone monitoring network and reanalysis dataset, we find that nearly all cities in Sichuan Province showed positive increasing trends in the warm-season ozone levels. The warm-season daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) ozone levels increased by 2.0 ppb (4.8%) year−1 as a whole, with slightly larger trends in some sites such as a site in Zigong (5.2 ppb year−1). Seasonally, the monthly ozone level in Sichuan peaks from May to August (varies with year). The predominant warm-season synoptic patterns were objectively identified based on concurrent hourly meteorological fields from ERA5. High-pressure systems promote ozone production and result in high ozone concentrations, due to strong solar radiation as well as hot and dry atmospheric conditions. The increased occurrence of high-pressure patterns probably drives the ozone increase in Sichuan. When ozone pollution is relatively weak (with MDA8 ozone around 170 μg m−3), the air quality standard could be achieved in the short term by a 25% reduction of NOx and VOCs emissions. Strengthened emission control is needed when ozone pollution is more severe. Our study provides implications for effective emission control of ozone pollution in Sichuan.