We review science‐based adaptation strategies for western North American (wNA) forests that include restoring active fire regimes and fostering resilient structure and composition of forested landscapes. As part of the review, we address common questions associated with climate adaptation and realignment treatments that run counter to a broad consensus in the literature. These include the following: (1) Are the effects of fire exclusion overstated? If so, are treatments unwarranted and even counterproductive? (2) Is forest thinning alone sufficient to mitigate wildfire hazard? (3) Can forest thinning and prescribed burning solve the problem? (4) Should active forest management, including forest thinning, be concentrated in the wildland urban interface (WUI)? (5) Can wildfires on their own do the work of fuel treatments? (6) Is the primary objective of fuel reduction treatments to assist in future firefighting response and containment? (7) Do fuel treatments work under extreme fire weather? (8) Is the scale of the problem too great? Can we ever catch up? (9) Will planting more trees mitigate climate change in wNA forests? And (10) is post‐fire management needed or even ecologically justified? Based on our review of the scientific evidence, a range of proactive management actions are justified and necessary to keep pace with changing climatic and wildfire regimes and declining forest heterogeneity after severe wildfires. Science‐based adaptation options include the use of managed wildfire, prescribed burning, and coupled mechanical thinning and prescribed burning as is consistent with land management allocations and forest conditions. Although some current models of fire management in wNA are averse to short‐term risks and uncertainties, the long‐term environmental, social, and cultural consequences of wildfire management primarily grounded in fire suppression are well documented, highlighting an urgency to invest in intentional forest management and restoration of active fire regimes.

Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration.

Accurate assessment of burn severity is a critical need for an improved understanding of fire behavior and ecology and effective post-fire management. Although NASA Landsat satellites have a long history of use for remotely sensed mapping of burn severity, the recently launched (2015 and 2017) European Space Agency Sentinel-2 satellite constellation offers increased temporal and spatial resolution with global coverage, combined with free data access. Evaluations of burn severity derived from Landsat and Sentinel generally show comparable results, but these studies only assessed a small number of fires with limited field data. We used 912 ground calibration plots from 26 fires that burned between 2016 and 2019 in western North America to compare Sentinel- and Landsat-derived burn severity estimates with the field-based composite burn index. We mapped burn severity using two methods; the well-established paired scene approach, in which a single pre- and post-fire scene are selected for each fire, and also a mean image compositing approach that automatically integrates multiple scenes using the cloud-based remote sensing platform Google Earth Engine. We found that Sentinel generally performed as well or better than Landsat for four spectral indices of burn severity, particularly when using atmospherically corrected Sentinel imagery. Additionally, we tested the effects of mapping burn severity at Sentinel’s finer spatial resolution (10 m) on estimates of the spatial complexity of stand-replacing fire, resulting in a 5% average reduction per-fire in area mapped as high-severity patch interiors (24,273 ha total) compared to mapping at the resolution of Landsat (30 m). These findings suggest Sentinel may improve ecological discrimination of fine-scale fire effects, but also warrant caution when comparing estimates of burn severity spatial patterns derived at different resolutions. Overall, these results indicate that burn severity mapping will benefit substantially from the integration of Sentinel imagery through increased imagery availability, and that Sentinel’s higher spatial resolution improves opportunities for examining finer-scale fire effects across ecosystems.

Background: High-severity burned areas can have lasting impacts on vegetation regeneration, carbon dynamics, hydrology, and erosion. While landscape models can predict erosion from burned areas using the differenced normalized burn ratio (dNBR), post-fire erosion modeling has predominantly focused on areas that have recently burned. Here, we developed and validated a predictive burn severity model that produces continuous dNBR predictions for recently unburned forest land in Utah. Results: Vegetation productivity, elevation, and canopy fuels were the most important predictor variables in the model, highlighting the strong control of fuels and vegetation on burn severity in Utah. Final model out-of-bag R² was 67.1%, residuals showed a correlation coefficient of 0.89 and classification accuracy into three classes was 85%. We demonstrated that dNBR can be empirically modeled relative to fuels and topography and found burn severity was highest in productive vegetation and at relatively cooler sites. Conclusions: We found that prediction accuracy was higher when fuel moisture was lower, suggesting drier weather conditions drive more consistent and predictable burn severity patterns across a range of burn severity, vegetation types, and geographic locations. Moreover, burn severity predictions from this model can be used to inform hydro-erosion models and subsequent management actions aimed at reducing burn severity and post-wildfire erosion risks.