The expansion of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) cultivation plantation over the past few decades has been significantly explosive in Xishuangbanna, southwest China. More and more evidences concerning the expansion of rubber plantations lead to the negative influence to local regional hydrology. It is vital to explore the impact of climate change and rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) plantation expansion on reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) for the sustainable and efficient use of regional water resources. In this study, the spatiotemporal variation of ET0 as well as its relationship in rubber plantations area in Xishuangbanna from 1970–2017 were analyzed by using trend, correlation and contribution analysis. The results showed that the rubber plantation was 12,768 ha yr^–1 from 1990 to 2017 in Xishuangbanna, and nearly 40.8% of new rubber plantations expanded above 900 m in altitude from 2000 to 2017. Sunshine duration and average relative humidity were the key meteorological factors that affect ET₀ in Xishuangbanna, with the sensitivity coefficient of 0.51 and 0.35, respectively. The multiyear relative change of ET₀ in Xishuangbanna was 9.18%, and the total contribution of major climate factors was 7.87% during 1970 and 2017. The average relative humidity in the plantation area decreases, which directly leads to the increase of ET₀. The amount of ET₀ change from 2000 to 2017 affected by climate change increased at 3.13 mm/10a, whereas it was 2.17 mm/10a affected by the expansion of rubber plantations by quantitative separation. ET₀ was significantly affected by climate change but intensified by the expansion of rubber plantation.

Soil water content (SWC) plays a vital role in the process of evapotranspiration (ET) in rubber plantations. To investigate the influence of the ET process on soil water balance in rubber plantations, we measured SWC at depths of 10, 20, 30, 40, 70, 100, 130 cm, measured the characteristics of root density distribution, and estimated the ET and deep percolation at a rubber plantation in Xishuangbanna using the Hydrus-1D model. Our results indicate the Hydrus-1D model can accurate simulate soil water dynamics in the 0–130 cm of rubber plantations with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSE) was 0.80–0.96, the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) was 0.05–0.02, and the Pearson Correlation Coefficient (R) was 0.82–0.97. Obviously, there were seasonal variation characteristics in soil moisture changes in the rubber plantations of Xishuangbanna. The soil water storage (SWS) dropped to its lowest value of 194 mm and reached its maximum value of 504 mm from the dry season to the rainy season. The simulated ET of the rubber plantation was 1166.1 mm. The large uptake and utilization of soil water by rubber plantations in the dry season affects or exacerbates seasonal drought in Xishuangbanna and leads to a shortage of regional water resources.