Geothermal energy is a green source of power that could play an important role in climate‐conscious energy portfolios; enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) have the potential to scale up exploitation of thermal resources. During hydraulic fracturing, fluids injected under high‐pressure cause the rock mass to fail, stimulating fractures that improve fluid connectivity. However, this increase of pore fluid pressure can also reactivate pre‐existing fault systems, potentially inducing earthquakes of significant size. Induced earthquakes are a significant concern for EGS operations. In some cases, ground shaking nuisance, building damages, or injuries have spurred the early termination of projects (e.g., Basel, Pohang). On the other hand, EGS operations at Soultz‐sous‐Forêts (France), Helsinki (Finland), Blue Mountain (Nevada, USA), and Utah FORGE (USA) have adequately managed induced earthquake risks. The success of an EGS operation depends on economical reservoir enhancements, while maintaining acceptable seismic risk levels. This requires state‐of‐the‐art seismic risk management. This article reviews domains of seismology, earthquake engineering, risk management, and communication. We then synthesize “good practice” recommendations for evaluating, mitigating, and communicating the risk of induced seismicity. We advocate for a modular approach. Recommendations are provided for key technical aspects including (a) a seismic risk management framework, (b) seismic risk pre‐screening, (c) comprehensive seismic hazard and risk evaluation, (d) traffic light protocol designs, (e) seismic monitoring implementation, and (f) step‐by‐step communication plans. Our recommendations adhere to regulatory best practices, to ensure their general applicability. Our guidelines provide a template for effective earthquake risk management and future research directions.

In different subsurface energy technologies, traffic light systems (TLSs) have been implemented for limiting the strength of induced seismicity. Despite their widespread application, fundamental assumptions regarding the controllability of induced seismicity were usually not reviewed. This is the focus of the current article, in which we discuss limitations of a TLS in the context of seismicity induced by fluid injection and gas production. Most existing TLSs are based on a critical earthquake magnitude or vibration level that should be prevented to occur. Operational measures are defined to be taken after an induced earthquake exceeds predefined threshold values. This concept rests on the tacit assumptions that induced earthquakes of a critical strength announce themselves by precursory events of smaller strength and that future earthquakes of a critical strength can be prevented by modifying or stopping subsurface operations. We investigate to what extent these assumptions can be justified by studying observation data from a dozen fluid‐injection operations in geothermal reservoirs as well as from gas production in 26 gas fields in The Netherlands. In our case studies, whereas fluid injection–induced seismicity generally starts at a low‐magnitude level and exhibits a gradual temporal increase of the maximum earthquake magnitude with the duration of the injection, the largest magnitude event frequently occurs postinjection. The temporal evolution of the seismicity induced by gas production in The Netherlands is less systematic. In some gas fields, seismicity started at a comparatively large‐magnitude level (⁠$ML≥2.7$⁠) without detectable precursors. A correlation between seismic activity and the gas production rate is only observed in the largest gas field. Our findings indicate that the precision to what an earthquake of a given strength can be prevented by a TLS has more limitations than typically assumed.

We implement a Coulomb rate‐and‐state approach to explore the nonlinear relation between stressing rate and seismicity rate in the Groningen gas field. Coulomb stress rates are calculated, taking into account the 3‐D structural complexity of the field and including the poroelastic effect of the differential compaction due to fault offsets. The spatiotemporal evolution of the Groningen seismicity must be attributed to a combination of both (i) spatial variability in the induced stressing rate history and (ii) spatial heterogeneities in the rate‐and‐state model parameters. Focusing on two subareas of the Groningen field where the observed event rates are very contrasted even though the modeled seismicity rates are of similar magnitudes, we show that the rate‐and‐state model parameters are spatially heterogeneous. For these two subareas, the very low background seismicity rate of the Groningen gas field can explain the long delay in the seismicity response relative to the onset of reservoir depletion. The characteristic periods of stress perturbations, due to gas production fluctuations, are much shorter than the inferred intrinsic time delay of the earthquake nucleation process. In this regime the modeled seismicity rate is in phase with the stress changes. However, since the start of production and for two subareas of our analysis, the Groningen fault system is unsteady and it is gradually becoming more sensitive to the stressing rate.

We present an overview of induced seismicity due to subsurface engineering in the Netherlands. Our overview includes events induced by gas extraction, underground gas storage, geothermal heat extraction, salt solution mining and post-mining water ingress. Compared to natural seismicity, induced events are usually small (magnitudes ≤ 4.0). However, due to the soft topsoils in combination with shallow hypocentres, in the Netherlands events exceeding magnitude 1.5–2.0 may be felt by the public. These events can potentially damage houses and infrastructure, and undermine public acceptance. Felt events were induced by gas production in the north of the Netherlands and by post-mining water ingress in the south-east. Notorious examples are the earthquakes induced by gas production from the large Groningen gas field with magnitudes up to 3.6. Here, extensive non-structural damage incurred and public support was revoked. As a consequence, production will be terminated in 2022 leaving approximately 800 billion cubic metres of gas unexploited. The magnitudes of the events observed at underground gas storage, geothermal heat production and salt solution mining projects have so far been very limited (magnitudes ≤ 1.7). However, in the future larger events cannot be excluded. Project- or industry-specific risk governance protocols, extensive gathering of subsurface data and adequate seismic monitoring are therefore essential to allow sustainable use of the Dutch subsurface now and over the decades to come.

For induced seismicity, the non-stationary, heterogeneous character of subsurface stress perturbations can be a source of spatiotemporal variations in the scaling of event sizes; one of the critical parameters controlling seismic hazard and risk. We demonstrate and test a systematic, statistical, penalized-likelihood approach to analysing both spatial and temporal variations in event size distributions. The methodology used is transferable to the risk analysis of any subsurface operation, especially for small earthquake catalogues. We explore the whole solution space and circumvent conventional, arbitrary choices that require a priori knowledge of these variations. We assess the effect of possible bias in the derivation, e.g., due to tapering of the earthquake-size distribution, correlation between the b-value and the magnitude of completeness and correlation between the b-value and the largest magnitude observed. We analyse the spatiotemporal variations in the earthquake-size distribution of the Groningen induced seismicity catalogue (December 1991–November 16, 2021). We find statistically significant spatial variations without any compelling, statistical evidence of a temporal variation. Furthermore, we find that the largest magnitudes observed are inconsistent with the sampling statistics of an unconstrained earthquake-size distribution. Current risk assessment models likely overestimate the probability of larger magnitude events (M ≥ 3.0) and thus the risk posed.

SUMMARY: The Groningen gas field in the north of the Netherlands is one of the largest gas fields in the world. Since the early 1990s induced seismicity has been recorded. The largest magnitude event observed so far was a Mw = 3.6 event at the town of Huizinge in 2012. The risk posed by the induced events urged the necessity to build comprehensive seismological models capable of explaining the spatial-temporal distribution of the recorded seismicity and evaluating the regional seismic hazard and risk. The link between the occurrence of the seismicity and pressure depletion due to the production of the gas has been firmly established. However, the construction of comprehensive seismological models as well as hazard assessment is complicated by the fact that it is difficult to distinguish between induced and clustered events (events triggered by stress transfer of preceding, neighbouring events). This paper explores the contribution of clustered populations (i.e. aftershocks) to the Groningen induced seismic catalogue based on a statistical methodology in the time–space–magnitude domain. Specifically, the distributions of space–time distances between pairs of nearest-neighbour earthquakes, referred to as cluster style, is analysed. The cluster style of the Groningen induced seismicity is found to be very diffuse and characterized by a very low proportion of fore-/aftershock sequences and swarms (∼5 per cent) and a large proportion of repeater events (∼10 per cent). In contrast to human-induced seismicity in other regions, the background seismicity rate of Groningen is very low. Temporal variations in background seismicity rates can be related to changes in fault loading rates induced by gas production. Furthermore, a significant amount of independent, coincidental events (events occurring very close in time, but long distances apart) are observed. As the large gas field is fully connected, loading of the faults occurs roughly simultaneously throughout the field. Hence, the statistical probability of events occurring very close in time, but spatially far apart is significantly larger than in areas of fluid-injection induced seismicity The significant amount of repeaters and coincidental events cause an overabundance of events at intermediate time- and space-distances. This is further enhanced by the larger location errors in the catalogue increasing the estimated space-distance for non-relocated events. The diffusivity due to this overabundance of events at intermediate time- and space-distances, and the low-proportion of true fore-/aftershocks renders the statistical method used incapable of deriving a proper mode-separation value. However, this is not unique to this method. Any statistical method aimed at resolving two populations will break down if one of the populations analysed is too small. Hence, it is advisable to use caution when distinguishing fore-/aftershocks sequences or swarms for induced seismicity where the relative proportion of clustered events may be significantly lower than for tectonic events. In addition, given the small proportion of clustering and the general uncertainty in earthquake statistics, the results of this paper indicate that a distinction for earthquake risk modelling in Groningen is unnecessary.