Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have already become major killers in Bangladesh. Once NCDs are developed, they become chronic health and economic problems. Their primary prevention is linked to their common risk factors. This study was conducted to determine the prevalence of NCD risk factors with a focus on their clustering in Bangladeshi adults. This nationally representative study was done in 4,073 (1,812 men and 2,261 women) adults aged 25 years or older selected from rural and urban households. Multistage cluster sampling design was used. Selected variables were in line with steps I and II of WHO stepwise surveillance except alcohol. Forty-four percent used tobacco in any form. Almost 93 % did not consume adequate fruit and vegetables (5 servings or more). Thirty eight percent had low physical activity level ( =25 kg/m^2). Twenty-one percent had hypertension (blood pressure > =140/90 mmHg or medication) and about 5 % had documented diabetes. Upon examination of risk factor clustering, we observed that 38 % had at least three risk factors. After this threshold, clustering suddenly dropped down to a fairly low level. Using this threshold as a cut-off, clustering of risk factors was associated with age, male gender, urban residence, educational levels and quality of house in multivariate analysis. Prevalence of NCD risk factors is fairly high in Bangladeshi adults with a tendency of clustering. If a risk factor such as hypertension is detected, a closer look for other risk factors has to be given in both at clinical and public health settings. Clustering raises risk by more than a summation of risk factors. Our findings, therefore, suggest that Bangladesh could expect a significant increase in NCDs in near future.

Dengue is among the fastest-spreading vector-borne infectious disease, with outbreaks often overwhelm the health system and result in huge morbidity and mortality in its endemic populations in the absence of an efficient warning system. A large number of prediction models are currently in use globally. As such, this study aimed to systematically review the published literature that used quantitative models to predict dengue outbreaks and provide insights about the current practices. A systematic search was undertaken, using the Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus and Web of Science databases for published citations, without time or geographical restrictions. Study selection, data extraction and management process were devised in accordance with the ‘Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies’ (‘CHARMS’) framework. A total of 99 models were included in the review from 64 studies. Most models sourced climate (94.7%) and climate change (77.8%) data from agency reports and only 59.6% of the models adjusted for reporting time lag. All included models used climate predictors; 70.7% of them were built with only climate factors. Climate factors were used in combination with climate change factors (13.4%), both climate change and demographic factors (3.1%), vector factors (6.3%), and demographic factors (5.2%). Machine learning techniques were used for 39.4% of the models. Of these, random forest (15.4%), neural networks (23.1%) and ensemble models (10.3%) were notable. Among the statistical (60.6%) models, linear regression (18.3%), Poisson regression (18.3%), generalized additive models (16.7%) and time series/autoregressive models (26.7%) were notable. Around 20.2% of the models reported no validation at all and only 5.2% reported external validation. The reporting of methodology and model performance measures were inadequate in many of the existing prediction models. This review collates plausible predictors and methodological approaches, which will contribute to robust modelling in diverse settings and populations.

Body-mass-index (BMI) is widely accepted as an indicator of nutritional status in adults. Mid-upper-arm-circumference (MUAC) is another anthropometric-measure used primarily among children. The present study attempted to evaluate the use of MUAC as a simpler alternative to BMI cut-off <18.5 to detect adult undernutrition, and thus to suggest a suitable cut-off value. A cross-sectional study in 650 adult attendants of the patients of Dhaka-Hospital, of the International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b) was conducted during 2012. Height, weight and MUAC of 260 male and 390 female aged 19–60 years were measured. Curve estimation was done to assess the linearity and correlation of BMI and MUAC. Sensitivity and specificity of MUAC against BMI<18.5 was determined. Separate Receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) analyses were performed for male and female. Area under ROC curve and Youden's index were generated to aid selection of the most suitable cut-off value of MUAC for undernutrition. A value with highest Youden's index was chosen for cut-off. Our data shows strong significant positive correlation (linear) between MUAC and BMI, for males r = 0.81, (p<0.001) and for females r = 0.828, (p<0.001). MUAC cut-off <25.1 cm in males (AUC 0.930) and <23.9 cm in females (AUC 0.930) were chosen separately based on highest corresponding Youden's index. These values best correspond with BMI cut-off for under nutrition (BMI <18.5) in either gender. MUAC correlates closely with BMI. For the simplicity and easy to remember MUAC <25 cm for male and <24 cm for female may be considered as a simpler alternative to BMI cut-off <18.5 to detect adult undernutrition.

Background: Nationally representative data on noncommunicable disease (NCD) risk factors are lacking in Bangladesh. This study was done to determine the prevalence of common risk factors for major NCDs among men and women of rural and urban areas of Bangladesh. Materials and Methods: This survey was done with 9,275 individuals aged 25 years or older randomly drawn from all over the country. Information on diet, physical activity, tobacco and alcohol, and treatment history for hypertension and diabetes were collected. Height, weight, waist circumference, and blood pressure (BP) were measured. Results: There were 4,312 men and 4,963 women with the mean age of 42 years (standard deviation 13 years). Half of them (54%) used tobacco in some form, <1% consumed alcohol within the past 30 days, 92% did not consume adequate fruit and vegetables (five servings or more), and 35% had low physical activity level [<600 metabolic equivalent (MET) min per week]. Documented diabetes was found in 4% of the participants. Seventeen percent were overweight [body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg/m ² and 21% had abdominal obesity (men ≥94, women ≥80 cm). Overall, 21% people had hypertension (blood pressure ≥140/90 mmHg or medication). Physical inactivity, alcohol intake, hypertension, obesity, and diabetes were more prevalent in urban areas, as opposed to tobacco. Tobacco intake showed a decreasing gradient, but hypertension, obesity, diabetes, and low physical activity showed an increasing gradient across the wealth quartiles. Conclusion: Risk factors are widely prevalent in Bangladeshi people across sexes and across both rural and urban areas of residences. NCD prevention through risk factor control, and early detection and treatment of hypertension and diabetes are warranted.

To estimate the age-standardized prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes and identify factors associated with these conditions at individual, household, and community levels. Data from 11952 Bangladeshi adults aged 18–95 years available from the most recent Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2017–18 were used. Anthropometric measurements and fasting blood glucose samples were taken as part of the survey. Prevalence estimates of diabetes and prediabetes were age-standardized with direct standardization, and risk factors were identified using multilevel mix-effects Poisson regression models with robust variance. The overall age-standardised prevalence of diabetes was 9.2% (95%CI 8.7–9.7) (men: 8.8%, women: 9.6%), and prediabetes was 13.3% (95%CI 12.7–13.9) (men: 13.0%, women: 13.6%). Among people with diabetes, 61.5% were unaware that they had the condition. 35.2% took treatment regularly, and only 30.4% of them had controlled diabetes. Factors associated with an increased prevalence of having diabetes were increasing age, male, overweight/obesity, hypertension, being in the highest wealth quintile, and living in the Dhaka division. People currently employed and living in the Rangpur division were less likely to have diabetes than those currently not employed and living in the Barishal division. Diabetes and prediabetes affect a substantial proportion (over one-quarter) of the Bangladeshi adult population. Continuing surveillance and effective prevention and control measures, focusing on obesity reduction and hypertension management, are urgently needed.