The existing parametric formulae to calculate the notch stress concentration factor of fillet welds often result in reduced accuracy due to an oversimplification of the real weld geometry. The present work proposes a parametric formula for the evaluation of the notch SCF based on the spline weld model that offers a better approximation of the real shape of the fillet weld. The spline model was adopted in FE analyses on T-shape joints and cruciform joints models, under different loading conditions, to propose a parametric formula for the calculation of the SCF by regression analysis. In addition, the precision of parametric formulae based on the line model was examined. The magnitude of the stress concentration was also analyzed by means of its probability distribution. The results show that the line model is not accurate enough to calculate the SCF of fillet weld if the weld profile is considered. The error of the SCF by the proposed parametric formulae is proven to be smaller than 5% according to the testing data system. The stress concentration of cruciform joints under tensile stress represents the worst case scenario if assessed by the confidence interval of 95% survival probability.