As China rapidly urbanizes, land resources tend to deplete. This paper aims to identify and propose a resolution of land use conflicts to promote sustainable land use and coordinate the interaction between humans and the environment in urban areas. The methodology of land use conflict assessment within spatial zoning of the Su–Xi–Chang region was evaluated. Taking into consideration the intensity of human activities and the background condition of the natural environment, we divided the study area into a few regions. Furthermore, we developed a methodology by calculating landscape complexity, fragility, and stability based on spatial zoning so as to derive the spatio-temporal characteristics of the land use conflict index (LUCI) in the Su–Xi–Chang region. The results indicate the following: (1) According to the urban spatial attribute index (USAI) statistics, we delineate the core, fringe, and suburban zones of the Su–Xi–Chang region, which accounted for 9.61%, 11.06%, and 79.33% of urban agglomerations respectively; (2) from 1990 to 2018, the fragility index (FI) and LUCI showed S-shaped curves, while the complexity (CI) and the stability indices (SI) exhibited minor fluctuations in the fringe and suburb zones; and (3) intensive and severe conflict is concentrated in core areas due to quite intense human activities and in fringe areas due to an increased interaction between humans and land, while moderate conflict is mainly found in rural and suburban areas that pose as a natural environmental space. The results can serve as a theoretical framework for an effective identification of the LUCI in an urban agglomeration and coordination of the optimal allocation of regional land resources.

Ecosystem services (ES) are a key bridge connecting natural ecosystems with human social development. The core significance of ecosystem service value (ESV) is to quantify the contribution of ecosystems to human well-being. The mining of mineral resources causes disturbance to the structure, function, and value of ecosystems. This study focuses on the high groundwater level coal–grain overlapping areas in eastern China, the mining of mineral resources has led to widespread loss of cropland and carbon sinks in the region. Considering the particularity of ecosystem evolution caused by coal mining subsidence, we developed multiple land use demand scenarios under dual objective constraints based on PIM and Markov chain, including Inertial Development (ID), Food Security (FS), Urban Expansion (UE), Ecological Restoration (ER). The PLUS model was used to simulate the spatial changes of land use and the equivalent factor method was used to calculate the changes in ESV, exploring the best path to improve the ecological benefits of the coal–grain overlapping areas. The results indicate that: (1) By 2030, the study area will add 54,249.09 ha of coal mining subsidence, mainly mild and moderate subsidence, and cropland being the most affected by subsidence among all land types. (2) In the multi-scenarios, the total ESV is ranked as follows: ecological governance scenario (CNY 51.21199 billion) > ID scenario (CNY 51.0898 billion) > food security scenario (CNY 48.4767 billion) > UE scenario (CNY 48.27157 billion). Among them, the ER scenario achieves all individual ESV gains and has the highest overall ESV. (3) Spatial analysis shows that in the ER scenario, the ESV of mining townships significantly increases and the ESV gap between other townships has decreased. However, the FS scenario and UE scenario have led to widespread degradation of ESV between various townships in eastern mountainous areas, and severe degradation of ESV in some urban townships. This study validated the accuracy and applicability of the PLUS model in medium scale and plain regions. The study has confirmed our hypothesis that reasonable land use and ecological restoration methods can achieve Pareto improvement in regional ESV, provided a holistic and local dialectical perspective for related research, and a scientific basis for the sustainable development of coal grain overlapping areas.

Investigating the spatio-temporal differentiation patterns and driving factors of ecosystem services (ESs) supply and demand is of great significance for early warning of ecosystem imbalance risks and identifying regional natural resource supply–demand conflicts. This study takes the typical coal-grain overlapping area (CGOA) in Eastern China as the research object, dividing it into mining townships (MT) and non-mining townships (NMT) for comparative analysis. By integrating the InVEST model, ESs supply–demand ratio (ESDR) index, four-quadrant model, and the XGBoost-SHAP algorithm, the study systematically reveals the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and driving mechanisms of ESs supply and demand from 2000 to 2020. The results indicated that: (1) grain production (GP) service maintained a continuous supply–demand surplus, with the ESDR of NMT areas surpassing that of MT areas in 2020. The ESDR of water yield (WY) service was significantly influenced by interannual fluctuations in supply, showing deficits in multiple years. The decline in carbon sequestration (CS) service and sharp increase in carbon emissions led to a continuous decrease in the ESDR of CS service, with MT areas facing a higher risk of carbon deficit. (2) The spatial heterogeneity of ESs supply and demand was significant, with GP and CS services exhibiting a typical urban-rural dual spatial structure, and the overall region was dominated by the Type II ESs supply–demand matching (ESDM) pattern. The ESDR of WY service generally decreases from Southeast to Northwest across the region. with the Type IV ESDM pattern dominating in most years. (3) Human activities are the core driving force shaping the supply–demand patterns of ESs. Among these, land use intensity exhibits a nonlinear effect, high population density demonstrates an inhibitory effect, and MT areas are more significantly affected by coal mining subsidence. Natural environmental factors primarily drive WY service. The research findings can provide a scientific reference for the coordinated allocation of regional natural resources and the sustainable development of the human–land system.

As a pivotal driver of high-quality development, new quality productivity (NQP) forms an indispensable synergistic relationship with land use efficiency (LUE) for achieving regional sustainability. Based on panel data from 29 prefecture-level cities in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration (CPUA) from 2010 to 2023, this study integrates the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method, super-efficiency Slack-Based Measure (SBM) model, Malmquist index, and fixed-effects models to systematically explore the spatiotemporal evolution of NQP and its underlying impact mechanism on LUE. Key findings reveal: (1) The comprehensive NQP index of the CPUA increased from 0.280 to 0.828, exhibiting a “stepwise rise” trend, with a spatial pattern characterized by a “core–secondary–periphery” three-tier gradient distribution. Zhengzhou, as the core growth pole, played an innovative leading role, while peripheral cities (e.g., Handan, Hebi) remained constrained by resource-dependent economic structures, with NQP indices consistently below 0.2. (2) The average LUE in the study area increased from 0.917 to 1.031. Cities within Henan Province generally performed better than those in Hebei, Shanxi, and Anhui provinces. Total factor productivity grew at an average annual rate of 16.4%, with technological progress serving as the primary driver. (3) NQP exerts a significantly positive impact on LUE, yet with notable heterogeneity: large-scale cities enhanced intensive land use substantially through technological agglomeration and industrial upgrading; cities with scarce arable land and high economic development levels effectively leveraged NQP to boost LUE; in contrast, small cities, regions rich in arable land, and areas with low economic development have not established effective synergistic mechanisms, hindered by limited technological absorption capacity, path dependence, and factor bottlenecks. This study provides empirical support and actionable insights for optimizing land resource allocation and advancing coordinated development between NQP and LUE in similar urban agglomerations.