Data-driven forecasts of air quality have recently achieved more accurate short-term predictions. However, despite their success, most of the current data-driven solutions lack proper quantifications of model uncertainty that communicate how much to trust the forecasts. Recently, several practical tools to estimate uncertainty have been developed in probabilistic deep learning. However, there have not been empirical applications and extensive comparisons of these tools in the domain of air quality forecasts. Therefore, this work applies state-of-the-art techniques of uncertainty quantification in a real-world setting of air quality forecasts. Through extensive experiments, we describe training probabilistic models and evaluate their predictive uncertainties based on empirical performance, reliability of confidence estimate, and practical applicability. We also propose improving these models using “free” adversarial training and exploiting temporal and spatial correlation inherent in air quality data. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed models perform better than previous works in quantifying uncertainty in data-driven air quality forecasts. Overall, Bayesian neural networks provide a more reliable uncertainty estimate but can be challenging to implement and scale. Other scalable methods, such as deep ensemble, Monte Carlo (MC) dropout, and stochastic weight averaging-Gaussian (SWAG), can perform well if applied correctly but with different tradeoffs and slight variations in performance metrics. Finally, our results show the practical impact of uncertainty estimation and demonstrate that, indeed, probabilistic models are more suitable for making informed decisions.

Neural network training relies on our ability to find "good" minimizers of highly non-convex loss functions. It is well-known that certain network architecture designs (e.g., skip connections) produce loss functions that train easier, and well-chosen training parameters (batch size, learning rate, optimizer) produce minimizers that generalize better. However, the reasons for these differences, and their effects on the underlying loss landscape, are not well understood. In this paper, we explore the structure of neural loss functions, and the effect of loss landscapes on generalization, using a range of visualization methods. First, we introduce a simple "filter normalization" method that helps us visualize loss function curvature and make meaningful side-by-side comparisons between loss functions. Then, using a variety of visualizations, we explore how network architecture affects the loss landscape, and how training parameters affect the shape of minimizers.

Adversarial training, in which a network is trained on adversarial examples, is one of the few defenses against adversarial attacks that withstands strong attacks. Unfortunately, the high cost of generating strong adversarial examples makes standard adversarial training impractical on large-scale problems like ImageNet. We present an algorithm that eliminates the overhead cost of generating adversarial examples by recycling the gradient information computed when updating model parameters. Our "free" adversarial training algorithm achieves comparable robustness to PGD adversarial training on the CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 datasets at negligible additional cost compared to natural training, and can be 7 to 30 times faster than other strong adversarial training methods. Using a single workstation with 4 P100 GPUs and 2 days of runtime, we can train a robust model for the large-scale ImageNet classification task that maintains 40% accuracy against PGD attacks. The code is available at https://github.com/ashafahi/free_adv_train.

Data Poisoning attacks modify training data to maliciously control a model trained on such data. In this work, we focus on targeted poisoning attacks which cause a reclassification of an unmodified test image and as such breach model integrity. We consider a particularly malicious poisoning attack that is both "from scratch" and "clean label", meaning we analyze an attack that successfully works against new, randomly initialized models, and is nearly imperceptible to humans, all while perturbing only a small fraction of the training data. Previous poisoning attacks against deep neural networks in this setting have been limited in scope and success, working only in simplified settings or being prohibitively expensive for large datasets. The central mechanism of the new attack is matching the gradient direction of malicious examples. We analyze why this works, supplement with practical considerations. and show its threat to real-world practitioners, finding that it is the first poisoning method to cause targeted misclassification in modern deep networks trained from scratch on a full-sized, poisoned ImageNet dataset. Finally we demonstrate the limitations of existing defensive strategies against such an attack, concluding that data poisoning is a credible threat, even for large-scale deep learning systems.

Facial recognition systems are increasingly deployed by private corporations, government agencies, and contractors for consumer services and mass surveillance programs alike. These systems are typically built by scraping social media profiles for user images. Adversarial perturbations have been proposed for bypassing facial recognition systems. However, existing methods fail on full-scale systems and commercial APIs. We develop our own adversarial filter that accounts for the entire image processing pipeline and is demonstrably effective against industrial-grade pipelines that include face detection and large scale databases. Additionally, we release an easy-to-use webtool that significantly degrades the accuracy of Amazon Rekognition and the Microsoft Azure Face Recognition API, reducing the accuracy of each to below 1%.