Observation‐based and modeling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region as a prominent climate change hotspot. While several initiatives have addressed the impacts of climate change in parts of the EMME, here we present an updated assessment, covering a wide range of timescales, phenomena and future pathways. Our assessment is based on a revised analysis of recent observations and projections and an extensive overview of the recent scientific literature on the causes and effects of regional climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions in the EMME are growing rapidly, surpassing those of the European Union, hence contributing significantly to climate change. Over the past half‐century and especially during recent decades, the EMME has warmed significantly faster than other inhabited regions. At the same time, changes in the hydrological cycle have become evident. The observed recent temperature increase of about 0.45°C per decade is projected to continue, although strong global greenhouse gas emission reductions could moderate this trend. In addition to projected changes in mean climate conditions, we call attention to extreme weather events with potentially disruptive societal impacts. These include the strongly increasing severity and duration of heatwaves, droughts and dust storms, as well as torrential rain events that can trigger flash floods. Our review is complemented by a discussion of atmospheric pollution and land‐use change in the region, including urbanization, desertification and forest fires. Finally, we identify sectors that may be critically affected and formulate adaptation and research recommendations toward greater resilience of the EMME region to climate change.

Drought and heat events in Europe are becoming increasingly frequent due to human-induced climate change, impacting both human well-being and ecosystem functioning. The intensity and effects of these events vary across the continent, making it crucial for decision-makers to understand spatial variability in drought impacts. Data on drought-related damage are currently dispersed across scientific publications, government reports, and media outlets. This study consolidates data on drought and heat damage in European forests from 2018 to 2022, using Europe-wide datasets including those related to crown defoliation, insect damage, burnt forest areas, and tree cover loss. The data, covering 16 European countries, were analysed across four regions, northern, central, Alpine, and southern, and compared with a reference period from 2010 to 2014. Findings reveal that forests in all zones experienced reduced vitality due to drought and elevated temperatures, with varying severity. Central Europe showed the highest vulnerability, impacting both coniferous and deciduous trees. The southern zone, while affected by tree cover loss, demonstrated greater resilience, likely due to historical drought exposure. The northern zone is experiencing emerging impacts less severely, possibly due to site-adapted boreal species, while the Alpine zone showed minimal impact, suggesting a protective effect of altitude. Key trends include (1) significant tree cover loss in the northern, central, and southern zones; (2) high damage levels despite 2021 being an average year, indicating lasting effects from previous years; (3) notable challenges in the central zone and in Sweden due to bark beetle infestations; and (4) no increase in wildfire severity in southern Europe despite ongoing challenges. Based on this assessment, we conclude that (i) European forests are highly vulnerable to drought and heat, with even resilient ecosystems at risk of severe damage; (ii) tailored strategies are essential to mitigate climate change impacts on European forests, incorporating regional differences in forest damage and resilience; and (iii) effective management requires harmonised data collection and enhanced monitoring to address future challenges comprehensively.

The summer of 2018 was an extraordinary season in climatological terms for northern and central Europe, bringing simultaneous, widespread, and concurrent heat and drought extremes in large parts of the continent with extensive impacts on agriculture, forests, water supply, and the socio-economic sector. Here, we present a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. The heatwave first affected Scandinavia in mid-July and shifted towards central Europe in late July, while Iberia was primarily affected in early August. The atmospheric circulation was characterized by strongly positive blocking anomalies over Europe, in combination with a positive summer North Atlantic Oscillation and a double jet stream configuration before the initiation of the heatwave. In terms of possible precursors common to previous European heatwaves, the Eurasian double-jet structure and a tripolar sea surface temperature anomaly over the North Atlantic were already identified in spring. While in the early stages over Scandinavia the air masses at mid and upper levels were often of a remote, maritime origin, at later stages over Iberia the air masses primarily had a local-to-regional origin. The drought affected Germany the most, starting with warmer than average conditions in spring, associated with enhanced latent heat release that initiated a severe depletion of soil moisture. During summer, a continued precipitation deficit exacerbated the problem, leading to hydrological and agricultural drought. A probabilistic attribution assessment of the heatwave in Germany showed that such events of prolonged heat have become more likely due to anthropogenic global warming. Regarding future projections, an extreme summer such as that of 2018 is expected to occur every 2 out of 3 years in Europe in a +1.5 ^∘C warmer world and virtually every single year in a +2 ^∘C warmer world. With such large-scale and impactful extreme events becoming more frequent and intense under anthropogenic climate change, comprehensive and multi-faceted studies like the one presented here quantify the multitude of their effects and provide valuable information as a basis for adaptation and mitigation strategies.

This article analyses high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Central and Eastern Mediterranean and compares them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for the Crusader period in the Levant (1095–1290 CE), the Mamluk regime in Transjordan (1260–1516 CE) and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion (1580–1610 CE). During the three time intervals, environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. Our research emphasises the challenges, opportunities and limitations of linking proxy records, palaeoreconstructions and model simulations to better understand how climate can affect human history.

Artificial intelligence can enhance our ability to manage natural disasters. However, understanding and addressing its limitations is required to realize its benefits. Here, we argue that interdisciplinary, multistakeholder, and international collaboration is needed for developing standards that facilitate its implementation.