Climate change is a critical issue of our time, and its causes, pathways, and forecasts remain a topic of broader discussion. In this paper, we present a novel data driven pathway analysis framework to identify the key processes behind mean global temperature and sea level rise, and to forecast the magnitude of their increase from the present to 2100. Based on historical data and dynamic statistical modeling alone, we have established the causal pathways that connect increasing greenhouse gas emissions to increasing global mean temperature and sea level, with its intermediate links encompassing humidity, sea ice coverage, and glacier mass, but not for sunspot numbers. Our results indicate that if no action is taken to curb anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global average temperature would rise to an estimated 3.28 °C (2.46–4.10 °C) above its pre-industrial level while the global sea level would be an estimated 573 mm (474–671 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100. However, if countries adhere to the greenhouse gas emission regulations outlined in the 2021 United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26), the rise in global temperature would lessen to an average increase of 1.88 °C (1.43–2.33 °C) above its pre-industrial level, albeit still higher than the targeted 1.5 °C, while the sea level increase would reduce to 449 mm (389–509 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100.

Global sea-level rise has been drawing increasingly greater attention in recent years, as it directly impacts the livelihood and sustainable development of humankind. Our research focuses on identifying causal factors and pathways on sea level changes (both global and regional) and subsequently predicting the magnitude of such changes. To this end, we have designed a novel analysis pipeline including three sequential steps: (1) a dynamic structural equation model (dSEM) to identify pathways between the global mean sea level (GMSL) and various predictors, (2) a vector autoregression model (VAR) to quantify the GMSL changes due to the significant relations identified in the first step, and (3) a generalized additive model (GAM) to model the relationship between regional sea level and GMSL. Historical records of GMSL and other variables from 1992 to 2020 were used to calibrate the analysis pipeline. Our results indicate that greenhouse gases, water, and air temperatures, change in Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheet mass, sea ice, and historical sea level all play a significant role in future sea-level rise. The resulting 95% upper bound of the sea-level projections was combined with a threshold for extreme flooding to map out the extent of sea-level rise in coastal communities using a digital coastal tracker.

The rapid increase in sea levels driven by climate change presents serious risks to coastal communities around the globe. Traditional prediction models frequently concentrate on developed regions with extensive tide gauge networks, leaving a significant gap in data and forecasts for developing countries where the tide gauges are sparse. This study presents a novel deep learning approach that combines TimesGAN with ConvLSTM to enhance regional sea level predictions using the more widely available satellite altimetry data. By generating synthetic training data with TimesGAN, we can significantly improve the predictive accuracy of the ConvLSTM model. Our method is tested across three developed regions—Shanghai, New York, and Lisbon—and three developing regions—Liberia, Gabon, and Somalia. The results reveal that integrating TimesGAN reduces the average mean squared error of the ConvLSTM prediction by approximately 66.1%, 76.6%, 64.5%, 78.2%, 81.7% and 85.1% for Shanghai, New York, Lisbon, Liberia, Gabon, and Somalia, respectively. This underscores the effectiveness of synthetic data in enhancing sea level prediction accuracy, across all regions studied.

Purpose The aim of this study was to establish a model that would enable healthcare providers to use routine follow-up measures of peritoneal dialysis to predict frailty in those patients. Design A cross-sectional design with Logistic regression and XGBoost machine learning algorithms analysis. Methods One hundred and twenty-three cases of peritoneal dialysis patients who underwent regular follow-up at our center were included in this study. We use the FRAIL scale to confirm the frailty of the patients. Clinical and Laboratory data were obtained from the peritoneal dialysis registration system. Factors associated with patient Frailty were identified through regularized logistic regression and validated using an XGBoost model. The final selected variables were in-cluded in the unregularized Logistic Regression to construct the model Findings A total of 123 patients were reviewed in this study, with an average age of 61.58 years, and the median dialysis Duration was 38.5(18.07,60.53) months. 39 patients (31.71%) were female, 54 PD patients (43.9%) were classified as frail. Age, Ferritin, and TCH are the top three im-portant features labeled by the XGBoost. The results are consistent with the regularized logistic regression. Conclusions In this study, age, total cholesterol, and ferritin are the most important features associated with the frailty in peritoneal dialysis patients. This model can be used to predict frailty status and help health monitoring of peritoneal dialysis patients. Clinical Evidence Logistic regression and XGBoost machine learning algorithms can be used to construct a predictive model of frailty in peritoneal dialysis patients. The model could provide doctors with an objective tool to find frailty in peritoneal dialysis patients. As the data is obtained from routine examinations, the prediction model will not bring additional burden to the work of doctors or nurses.