Temperature is a major factor contributing to the latitudinal distribution of species. In the Northern Hemisphere, a species is likely to be living very close to its upper thermal tolerance limits at the southern limit of its biogeographic range. With global warming, this southern limit is expected to shift poleward. Moreover, intertidal ecosystems are expected to be especially strongly affected, mostly due to their large daily and seasonal variations in temperature and exposure. Hence, these are model systems in which to conduct experiments examining the ecological effects of climate change. In this study we determined the upper lethal thermal limits, for both air and water, of the blue mussel Mytilus edulis via laboratory experiments. Tolerances vary seasonally, with a difference between media of 0.7 °C in June and 4.8 °C in November, as well as a decrease with multiple exposures. Measured lethal limits were then compared to field measurements of environmental temperature and concurrent measurements of mortality rates. Field results indicate that mortality in the intertidal occurs at rates expected from laboratory responses to elevated temperature. Hindcasts, retrospective analyses of historical data, indicate that high rates of mortality have shifted 51 and 42 days earlier in Beaufort, North Carolina, and Oregon Inlet, North Carolina, respectively, between 1956 and 2007. The combined data suggest that the historical southern limit of M. edulis near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is indeed the result of intolerance to high temperature, and that this range edge is shifting poleward in a manner indicative of global warming.

Global climate change is expected to have broad ecological consequences for species and communities. Attempts to forecast these consequences usually assume that changes in air or water temperature will translate into equivalent changes in a species’ organismal body temperature. This simple change is unlikely because an organism’s body temperature is determined by a complex series of interactions between the organism and its environment. Using a biophysical model, validated with 5 years of field observations, we examined the relationship between environmental temperature change and body temperature of the intertidal musselMytilus californianusover 1,600 km of its geographic distribution. We found that at all locations examined simulated changes in air or water temperature always produced less than equivalent changes in the daily maximum mussel body temperature. Moreover, the magnitude of body temperature change was highly variable, both within and among locations. A simulated 1°C increase in air or water temperature raised the maximum monthly average of daily body temperature maxima by 0.07–0.92°C, depending on the geographic location, vertical position, and temperature variable. We combined these sensitivities with predicted climate change for 2100 and calculated increases in monthly average maximum body temperature of 0.97–4.12°C, depending on location and climate change scenario. Thus geographic variation in body temperature sensitivity can modulate species’ experiences of climate change and must be considered when predicting the biological consequences of climate change.