This research compares the spatial and temporal variability of lightning activity associated with wildfires in several natural geographical zones of Western Siberia from 2016–2021. The study was based on the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) and The Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) for the warm (April–October) season. It was revealed that areas of hotspots and lightning activity most often coincide in the southwestern part of the territory (near Khanty-Mansiysk and Tyumen), in the mountain regions (Kuznetsk Alatau, Altai), and in the northern part of Kazakhstan. Maximum values of lightning occur in July for the whole territory of Western Siberia, and maximum values of hotspots occur in April in the central and southern regions of Western Siberia. Despite the largest number of fires in the south of the territory, the probability of ignition from lightning over the whole warm season is higher in the northern parts of Western Siberia; it reaches up to 30%. Thus, the revealed lightning–fire association allows us to better understand this process in the region that will be useful in the prediction of the potential fire danger in different natural zones.

Data from ERA5 reanalysis and observations at meteorological stations are used to estimate the spatiotemporal variations of extreme values of climatic and dangerous meteorological phenomena for the territory of Western Siberia over 1979–2020, and to identify the tendencies of their future variations during the late twenty-first century against the background of global climate change. The combined analysis of the derived estimates made it possible to identify the centers of “risk” in these areas and to determine the trends in their development. The air temperature is found to increase in the period 2011–2020 throughout Western Siberia, while the amount of precipitation and wind speed do so predominantly in its northern areas. Extreme precipitation amounts increase during summer in the entire area, except in mountainous areas in its southeastern part. In addition, areas affected by heavy rainfall are becoming smaller in the region and are located mainly in the south and along its western boundary. The results of the INM-CM5.0 model calculations revealed the response of the regional climate system to the ongoing global changes: the increasing trend in the number of extreme events in the region will persist until 2100.

A comparative statistical analysis of the spatiotemporal variability of atmospheric precipitation characteristics (mean and extreme values) in Western Siberia was performed based on data acquired from meteorological stations, global precipitation datasets such as the project of Asian Precipitation—Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) and from Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), and reanalysis archives, including from National Centers of Environmental Prediction (NCEP-DOE) and the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) for the period 1979–2018. The best agreement of the values from the observational data was observed with the values from GPCC. This archive also represented the periodicities in the time series of observational data from meteorological stations, especially in the short-period part of the spectrum. Underestimated values were revealed for the APHRODITE archive, while overestimated ones were found for the NCEP reanalysis data. In comparison with GPCC, the ERA5 dataset reproduced the general variability but with a smaller amplitude (the correlation coefficient was up to 0.9). In general, the median estimates of the precipitation amount derived from the meteorological stations’ data, as well from the reanalysis data, were in better agreement with each other rather than their extreme values. However, their temporal variability can be effectively described by other datasets.

Based on observational data from meteorological stations and reanalysis data, seasonal-diurnal values of total radiation and wind speed in the Russian sector of the Arctic were estimated over the time interval from 1987 to 2016. The flux of total solar energy was found to reach its peak values in June (7–8 kWh/m²); moreover, this flux was found to increase generally in summer months when going from west toward east. The average wind speed in the region was found to be 4–6 m/s and to not vary significantly throughout the year. The minimal (maximal) wind speeds increase (decrease) from winter toward summer.

Observational data for 1975–2012 have been used in analyzing the formation of air temperature and atmospheric pressure fields over the Asian territory of Russia (ATR). The climatic trends at the end...

The analysis of the spatio-temporal variability of lightning-ignited wildfires and meteorological conditions preceding their occurrence from both dry lightning and lightning with precipitation in Western Siberia for the warm seasons (May–September) of 2016–2021 was carried out. In the Arctic zone, fires from lightnings occur in most cases (83%) almost without precipitation (<2.5 mm/day), whereas in the forest and steppe zones the number of cases is less (81% and 74%, respectively). The most significant changes in meteorological conditions before the ignition were also revealed in the northern part 3–4 days before. Among all considered parameters, the most important role in the occurrence of dry lightning-ignited wildfires belongs to mid-tropospheric instability, lower-tropospheric dryness, and the moisture content of the top soil and surface floor layer. Moreover, in the Arctic zone of Western Siberia, more extreme (hotter and drier) meteorological conditions should be observed for the occurrence of ignition from lightning. The threshold values for the considered meteorological parameters were derived for our region for the first time. Obtained results can be used in the development of models for potential fire hazards prediction in various landscapes, which will have a practical application in various spheres of the national economy.