This review provides an integrated synthesis with timelines and evaluations of ecological responses to eutrophi- cation in Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in the USA. Analyses of dated sediment cores reveal initial evidence of organic enrichment in ~200 yr old strata, while signs of increased phytoplankton and decreased water clarity first appeared ~100 yr ago. Severe, recurring deep-water hypoxia and loss of diverse submersed vascular plants were first evident in the 1950s and 1960s, respectively. The degradation of these benthic habitats has contributed to declines in benthic macro- infauna in deep mesohaline regions of the Bay and blue crabs in shallow polyhaline areas. In contrast, copepods, which are heavily consumed in pelagic food chains, are relatively un- affected by nutrient-induced changes in phytoplankton. Intense mortality associated with fisheries and disease have caused a dramatic decline in eastern oyster stocks and associated Bay water filtration, which may have exacerbated eutrophication effects on phytoplankton and water clarity. Extensive tidal marshes, which have served as effective nutrient buffers along the Bay margins, are now being lost with rising sea level. Although the Bay's overall fisheries production has probably not been affected by eutrophication, decreases in the relative contribution of demersal fish and in the efficiency with which primary production is transferred to harvest suggest funda- mental shifts in trophic and habitat structures. Bay ecosystem responses to changes in nutrient loading are complicated by non-linear feedback mechanisms, including particle trapping and binding by benthic plants that increase water clarity, and by oxygen effects on benthic nutrient recycling efficiency. Observations in Bay tributaries undergoing recent reductions in nutrient input indicate relatively rapid recovery of some ecosystem functions but lags in the response of others.

Coincident climatic and human effects strongly influence water-quality properties in estuarine-coastal ecosystems around the world. Time-series data for a number of ecosystems reveal high spatio-temporal variability superimposed on secular trends traceable to nutrient over-enrichment. In this paper, we present new analyses of long-term data for Chesapeake Bay directed at several goals: (1) to distinguish trends from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic effects; (2) to assess long-term trends of water-quality properties reflecting degradation and recovery; (3) to propose numerical water-quality criteria as targets for restoration; (4) to assess progress toward attainment of these targets. The bay has experienced multiple impairments associated with nutrient over-enrichment since World War II, e.g., low dissolved oxygen (DO), decreased water clarity, and harmful algal blooms (HAB). Anthropogenic eutrophication has been expressed as increased chlorophyll-a (chl-a) driven by accelerated nutrient loading from 1945 to 1980. Management intervention led to decreased loading thereafter, but deleterious symptoms of excess nutrients persist. Climatic effects exemplified by irregular “dry” and “wet” periods in the last 30+ years largely explain high inter-annual variability of water-quality properties, requiring adjustments to resolve long-term trends. Here, we extend these analyses at a finer temporal scale to six decades of chl-a, Secchi depth, and nitrite plus nitrate (NO₂ + NO₃) data to support trend analyses and the development of numerical water-quality criteria. The proposed criteria build on a conceptual model emphasizing the need to distinguish climatic and human effects in gauging progress to reverse eutrophication in estuarine-coastal ecosystems.

Variable climatic conditions strongly influence phytoplankton dynamics in estuaries globally. Our study area is Chesapeake Bay, a highly productive ecosystem providing natural resources, transportation, and recreation for nearly 16 million people inhabiting a 165,000-km² watershed. Since World War II, nutrient over-enrichment has led to multiple ecosystem impairments caused by increased phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a). Doubled nitrogen (N) loadings from 1945–1980 led to increased chl-a, reduced water clarity, and low dissolved oxygen (DO), while decreased N loadings from 1981–2012 suggest modest improvement. The recent 30+ years are characterized by high inter-annual variability of chl-a, coinciding with irregular dry and wet periods, complicating the detection of long-term trends. Here, we synthesize time-series data for historical and recent N loadings (TN, NO₂ + NO₃), chl-a, floral composition, and net primary productivity (NPP) to distinguish secular changes caused by nutrient over-enrichment from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic conditions. Wet years showed higher chl-a, higher diatom abundance, and increased NPP, while dry years showed lower chl-a, lower diatom abundance, and decreased NPP. Our findings support a conceptual model wherein variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics against a backdrop of nutrient over-enrichment, emphasizing the need to separate these effects to gauge progress toward improving water quality in estuaries.

Salt marshes, which provide a transition between the marine and terrestrial environments around much of the temperature world, will be the first ecosystem to feel the effects of an increased rate of sea level rise. This study examined the metabolic responses of a high salt marsh to increased inundation and wrack deposition associated with sea level rise. We measured changes in ecosystem and soil photosynthesis and respiration by analyzing carbon dioxide fluxes in the light and dark. Data from seasonal flux measurements were combined with continuously measured light and temperature data to develop a model that estimated annual production and respiration. Results suggested that increased inundation will reduce respiration rates to a greater extent than production, yielding a moderate net loss of organic carbon from the high marsh. The model also predicted a substantial loss of organic carbon from wrack-affected areas. This decreased organic carbon input may play an important role in the ability of the marsh to maintain elevation relative to sea level rise.