In the present study, a total of 360 FE analyses were carried out on tubular X-joints strengthened with collar plates under brace tension under laboratory testing conditions (20 °C) and various fire conditions. The generated FE models were validated based on 31 tests. The FE analyses produced a comprehensive dataset that encapsulated resistance metrics, with detailed simulations of welds, contacts, and the incorporation of non-linear geometrical and material attributes. Twelve theoretical probability density functions (PDFs) were matched to the constructed histograms, with the maximum likelihood (ML) technique utilized to assess the parameters of these fitted PDFs. The theoretical PDFs, rigorously evaluated against the Anderson–Darling, Kolmogorov–Smirnov, and Chi-squared tests, identified the Generalized Petrov distribution as the optimal model for capturing the resistance behaviors of X-joints under tensile load and varying fire conditions. The findings have led to the proposition of five detailed theoretical PDFs and cumulative distribution functions (CDFs), introducing a novel perspective for assessing and reinforcing the structural resilience of strengthened CHS X-joints in engineering practices.