Model performance evaluation for real-time flood forecasting has been conducted using various criteria. Although the coefficient of efficiency (CE) is most widely used, we demonstrate that a model achieving good model efficiency may actually be inferior to the naïve (or persistence) forecasting, if the flow series has a high lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient. We derived sample-dependent and AR model-dependent asymptotic relationships between the coefficient of efficiency and the coefficient of persistence (CP) which form the basis of a proposed CE–CP coupled model performance evaluation criterion. Considering the flow persistence and the model simplicity, the AR(2) model is suggested to be the benchmark model for performance evaluation of real-time flood forecasting models. We emphasize that performance evaluation of flood forecasting models using the proposed CE–CP coupled criterion should be carried out with respect to individual flood events. A single CE or CP value derived from a multi-event artifactual series by no means provides a multi-event overall evaluation and may actually disguise the real capability of the proposed model.

The mixed pixel problem may be reduced through the use of a soft image classification and super-resolution mapping analyses. Here, the positive attributes of two popular super-resolution mapping methods, based on contouring and the Hopfield neural network, are combined. For a binary classification scenario, the method is based on fitting a contour of equal class membership to a pre-final output of a standard Hopfield neural network. Analyses of simulated and real image data sets show that the proposed method is more accurate than the standard contouring and Hopfield neural network based methods, with error typically reduced by a factor of two or more. The sensitivity of the Hopfield neural network based approaches to the setting of a gain function is also explored.

Combining super-resolution techniques can increase the accuracy with which the shape of objects may be characterised from imagery. This is illustrated with two approaches to combining the contouring and pixel swapping methods of super-resolution mapping for binary classification applications. In both approaches, the output of the pixel swapping method is softened to allow a contour of equal class membership to be fitted to it to represent the inter-class boundary. The accuracy of super-resolution mapping with the individual and combined techniques is explored, including an assessment of the effect of variation in the number of neighbors and zoom factor on pixel swapping based analyses. When combined, the error with which objects of varying shape were represented was typically greatly reduced relative to that observed from the application of the methods individually. For example, the root mean square error in mapping the boundary of an aeroplane represented in relatively fine spatial resolution imagery decreased from 14.41 m with contouring and 4.35 m with pixel swapping to 3.07 m when the approaches were combined.