Aim: Climate change is predicted to alter the distribution and abundance of marine species, including canopy‐forming seaweeds which provide important ecosystem functions and services. We asked whether continued warming will affect the distribution of six common canopy‐forming species: mid‐intertidal fucoids (Ascophyllum nodosum, Fucus vesiculosus), low‐intertidal Irish moss (Chondrus crispus), subtidal laminarian kelps (Saccharina latissima, Laminaria digitata) and the invasive Codium fragile.Location: Northwest Atlantic.Methods: We used occurrence records and the correlative presence‐only species distribution model Maxent to determine present‐day distribution. This distribution was compared to each species’ warm‐water physiological thresholds indicating areas of stable or reduced growth and mortality. Present‐day models were then projected to mid‐century (2040–2050) and end‐century (2090–2100) using two contrasting carbon emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and 8.5) and two global climate models from CMIP5 based on changes in ocean temperatures.Results: Projected range shifts were minimal under low emissions (RCP2.6), but substantial species‐specific range shifts were projected under high emissions (RCP8.5), with all species except C. fragile predicted to experience a northward shift in their southern (warm) edge of ≤406 km by the year 2100. Northward expansions outweighed southern extirpations for fucoids and C. crispus leading to overall range expansions, while range contractions were projected for kelps and C. fragile. Model projections generally agreed with physiological thresholds but were more conservative suggesting that range shifts for kelps may be underpredicted.Main conclusions: Our results highlight the benefits to be gained from strong climate change mitigation (RCP2.6), which would limit changes in rocky shore community distribution and composition. The business‐as‐usual RCP8.5 scenario projected major range shifts, seaweed community reorganization and transitions in dominant species south of Newfoundland by 2100 (~47°N). As canopy‐forming seaweeds provide essential habitat, carbon storage, nutrient cycling and commercial value, understanding their response to continued climate warming is critical to inform coastal management and conservation planning.

Satellite remote sensing is a valuable tool to map and monitor the distribution of marine macrophytes such as seagrass and seaweeds that perform many ecological functions and services in coastal habitats. Various satellites have been used to map the distribution of these coastal bottom habitat-forming species, with each sensor providing unique benefits. In this study, we first explored optimal methods to create bottom habitat maps using WorldView-3 satellite imagery. We secondly compared the WorldView-3 bottom habitat maps to previously produced Sentinel-2 maps in a temperate, optically complex environment in Nova Scotia, Canada to identify the top performing classification and the advantages and disadvantages of each sensor. Sentinel-2 provides a global, freely accessible dataset where four bands are available at a 10-m spatial resolution in the visible and near infrared spectrum. Conversely, WorldView-3 is a commercial satellite where eight bands are available at a 2-m spatial resolution in the visible and near infrared spectrum, but data catalogs are costly and limited in scope. Our optimal WorldView-3 workflow processed images from digital numbers to habitat classification maps, and included a semiautomatic stripe correction. Our comparison of bottom habitat maps explored the impact of improved WorldView-3 spatial resolution in isolation, and the combined advantage of both WorldView’s increased spatial and spectral resolution relative to Sentinel-2. We further explored the effect of tidal height on classification success, and relative changes in water clarity between images collected at different dates. As expected, both sensors are suitable for bottom habitat mapping. The value of WorldView-3 came from both its increased spatial and spectral resolution, particularly for fragmented vegetation, and the value of Sentinel-2 imagery comes from its global dataset that readily allows for large scale habitat mapping. Given the variation in scale, cost and resolution of the two sensors, we provide recommendations on their use for mapping and monitoring marine macrophyte habitat in Atlantic Canada, with potential applications to other coastal areas of the world.