A potential association between the use of angiotensin-receptor blockers (ARBs) and angiotensin-converting–enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and the risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) has not been well studied. We carried out a population-based case–control study in the Lombardy region of Italy. A total of 6272 case patients in whom infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was confirmed between February 21 and March 11, 2020, were matched to 30,759 beneficiaries of the Regional Health Service (controls) according to sex, age, and municipality of residence. Information about the use of selected drugs and patients’ clinical profiles was obtained from regional databases of health care use. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations between drugs and infection, with adjustment for confounders, were estimated by means of logistic regression. Among both case patients and controls, the mean (±SD) age was 68±13 years, and 37% were women. The use of ACE inhibitors and ARBs was more common among case patients than among controls, as was the use of other antihypertensive and non-antihypertensive drugs, and case patients had a worse clinical profile. Use of ARBs or ACE inhibitors did not show any association with Covid-19 among case patients overall (adjusted odds ratio, 0.95 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.86 to 1.05] for ARBs and 0.96 [95% CI, 0.87 to 1.07] for ACE inhibitors) or among patients who had a severe or fatal course of the disease (adjusted odds ratio, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.63 to 1.10] for ARBs and 0.91 [95% CI, 0.69 to 1.21] for ACE inhibitors), and no association between these variables was found according to sex. In this large, population-based study, the use of ACE inhibitors and ARBs was more frequent among patients with Covid-19 than among controls because of their higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease. However, there was no evidence that ACE inhibitors or ARBs affected the risk of COVID-19.

The effect of compliance with antihypertensive medications on the risk of cardiovascular outcomes in a population without a known history of cardiovascular disease has been addressed by a large population-based prospective, cohort study carried out by linking Italian administrative databases. The cohort of 242 594 patients aged 18 years or older, residents in the Italian Lombardy Region, who were newly treated for hypertension during 2000-2001, was followed from index prescription until 2007. During this period patients who experienced a hospitalization for coronary or cerebrovascular disease were identified (outcome). Exposure to antihypertensive drugs from index prescription until the date of hospitalization or censoring was assessed. Proportional hazards models were fitted to assess the association between persistence on and adherence with antihypertensive drug therapy and outcome. Data were adjusted for several covariates. During an average follow-up of 6 years, 12 016 members of the cohort experienced the outcome. Compared with patients who experienced at least one episode of treatment discontinuation, those who continued treatment had a 37% reduced risk of cardiovascular outcomes (95% confidence interval 34-40%). Compared with patients who had very low drug coverage (proportion of days covered ≤ 25%), those at intermediate (from 51 to 75%) and high coverage (>75%) had risk reductions of 20% (16-24%) and 25% (20-29%), respectively. Similar effects were observed when coronary and cerebrovascular events were considered separately. In the real life setting, fulfillment compliance with antihypertensive medications is effective in the primary prevention of cardiovascular outcomes.

Objectives To investigate the cardiovascular safety of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and estimate the risk of hospital admission for heart failure with use of individual NSAIDs. Design Nested case-control study. Setting Five population based healthcare databases from four European countries (the Netherlands, Italy, Germany, and the United Kingdom). Participants Adult individuals (age ≥18 years) who started NSAID treatment in 2000-10. Overall, 92 163 hospital admissions for heart failure were identified and matched with 8 246 403 controls (matched via risk set sampling according to age, sex, year of cohort entry). Main outcome measure Association between risk of hospital admission for heart failure and use of 27 individual NSAIDs, including 23 traditional NSAIDs and four selective COX 2 inhibitors. Associations were assessed by multivariable conditional logistic regression models. The dose-response relation between NSAID use and heart failure risk was also assessed. Results Current use of any NSAID (use in preceding 14 days) was found to be associated with a 19% increase of risk of hospital admission for heart failure (adjusted odds ratio 1.19; 95% confidence interval 1.17 to 1.22), compared with past use of any NSAIDs (use >183 days in the past). Risk of admission for heart failure increased for seven traditional NSAIDs (diclofenac, ibuprofen, indomethacin, ketorolac, naproxen, nimesulide, and piroxicam) and two COX 2 inhibitors (etoricoxib and rofecoxib). Odds ratios ranged from 1.16 (95% confidence interval 1.07 to 1.27) for naproxen to 1.83 (1.66 to 2.02) for ketorolac. Risk of heart failure doubled for diclofenac, etoricoxib, indomethacin, piroxicam, and rofecoxib used at very high doses (≥2 defined daily dose equivalents), although some confidence intervals were wide. Even medium doses (0.9-1.2 defined daily dose equivalents) of indomethacin and etoricoxib were associated with increased risk. There was no evidence that celecoxib increased the risk of admission for heart failure at commonly used doses. Conclusions The risk of hospital admission for heart failure associated with current use of NSAIDs appears to vary between individual NSAIDs, and this effect is dose dependent. This risk is associated with the use of a large number of individual NSAIDs reported by this study, which could help to inform both clinicians and health regulators.

In this paper, the authors describe fractional polynomials and cubic splines with which to represent smooth dose-response relations in summarizing meta-analytical aggregate data. Use of these two curve-fitting families can help prevent the problems arising from inappropriate linearity assumptions. These methods are illustrated in the problem of estimating the shape of the dose-response curve between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality risk. The authors considered aggregate data from 29 cohort studies investigating this issue (1966–2000). J-shaped curves with a nadir at approximately 5–7 g/day of alcohol consumption and a last protective dose of 47–60 g/day were consistently obtained from fractional polynomials and cubic splines. The authors conclude that both of the curve-fitting families are useful tools with which to explore dose-response epidemiologic questions by means of meta-analytical approaches, especially when important nonlinearity is anticipated.