This paper analyses the impacts of the Farm to Fork strategy (F2F) target of 25% organic farmland by 2030 in the EU using a farm level model. Two approaches are deployed to model conversion to organic agriculture. The first one, the endogenous approach, operates under the assumption that farm conversions to organic production result from assessing the utility difference between organic and conventional production systems. The exogenous approach relies on econometric estimation of the likelihood of farms to convert to organic driven by a combination of monetary and non-monetary drivers. The simulated impacts of the F2F target at the EU level vary depending on the chosen methodology. Gross income changes range from +3.8% under the endogenous approach to -1.3% under the exogenous approach. Both approaches forecast decreased production (-0.5% to -15%) for most crops and animal products upon achieving the organic target.

A key issue in CAP strategic planning in Greece is the treatment of historical entitlements. An unequal level of payments per hectare is difficult to justify in terms of the CAP’s rationale, and so the abolishment of these entitlements seems to be the most reasonable option. However, for historical reasons, this abolishment may result in a transfer of payments from smaller to larger farms and between different agricultural sub-sectors which could in turn lead to negative effects on the incomes of small farms and lead to farmers leaving the sector. We simulate the change to a flat rate payment in order to quantify these effects, then explore the possibility of employing the new obligatory redistribution measure, termed complementary income support, to mitigate any negative effects. We conclude that redistribution is, indeed, a powerful tool for fine-tuning decoupled payments if historical entitlements are to be abolished.