Background: With the current climate change crisis and its influence on infectious disease transmission there is an increased desire to understand its impact on infectious diseases globally. Hantaviruses are found worldwide, causing infectious diseases such as haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS)/hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in tropical regions such as Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). These regions are inherently vulnerable to climate change impacts, infectious disease outbreaks and natural disasters. Hantaviruses are zoonotic viruses present in multiple rodent hosts resident in Neotropical ecosystems within LAC and are involved in hantavirus transmission. Methods: We conducted a systematic review to assess the association of climatic factors with human hantavirus infections in the LAC region. Literature searches were conducted on MEDLINE and Web of Science databases for published studies according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) criteria. The inclusion criteria included at least eight human hantavirus cases, at least one climatic factor and study from > 1 LAC geographical location. Results: In total, 383 papers were identified within the search criteria, but 13 studies met the inclusion criteria ranging from Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and Panama in Latin America and a single study from Barbados in the Caribbean. Multiple mathematical models were utilized in the selected studies with varying power to generate robust risk and case estimates of human hantavirus infections linked to climatic factors. Strong evidence of hantavirus disease association with precipitation and habitat type factors were observed, but mixed evidence was observed for temperature and humidity. Conclusions: The interaction of climate and hantavirus diseases in LAC is likely complex due to the unknown identity of all vertebrate host reservoirs, circulation of multiple hantavirus strains, agricultural practices, climatic changes and challenged public health systems. There is an increasing need for more detailed systematic research on the influence of climate and other co-related social, abiotic, and biotic factors on infectious diseases in LAC to understand the complexity of vector-borne disease transmission in the Neotropics.

Barbados is heavily reliant on groundwater resources for its potable water supply, with over 80% of the island’s water sourced from aquifers. The ability to meet demand will become even more challenging due to the continuing climate crisis. The consequences of climate change within the Caribbean region include sea level rise, as well as hydrometeorological effects such as increased rainfall intensity, and declines in average annual rainfall. Scientifically sound approaches are becoming increasingly important to understand projected changes in supply and demand while concurrently minimizing deleterious impacts on the island’s aquifers. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to develop a physics-based groundwater model and surrogate models using machine learning (ML), which provide decision support to assist with groundwater resources management in Barbados. Results from the study show that a single continuum conceptualization is adequate for representing the island’s hydrogeology as demonstrated by a root mean squared error and mean absolute error of 2.7 m and 2.08 m between the model and observed steady-state hydraulic head. In addition, we show that data-driven surrogates using deep neural networks, elastic networks, and generative adversarial networks are capable of approximating the physics-based model with a high degree of accuracy as shown by R-squared values of 0.96, 0.95, and 0.95, respectively. The framework and tools developed are a critical step towards a digital twin that provides stakeholders with a quantitative tool for optimal management of groundwater under a changing climate in Barbados. These outputs will provide sound evidence-based solutions to aid long-term economic and social development on the island.

Climate change is no longer a hypothetical problem in the Caribbean but a new reality to which regional public health systems must adapt. One of its significant impacts is the increased transmission of infectious diseases, such as dengue fever, which is endemic in the region, and the presence of the Aedes aegypti mosquito vector responsible for transmitting the disease. (1) Methods: To assess the association between climatic factors and human dengue virus infections in the Caribbean, we conducted a systematic review of published studies on MEDLINE and Web of Science databases according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) criteria. (2) Results: In total, 153 papers were identified, with 27 studies selected that met the inclusion criteria ranging from the northern and southern Caribbean. Rainfall/precipitation and vapor pressure had a strong positive association with dengue incidence, whereas the evidence for the impact of temperatures was mixed. (3) Conclusions: The interaction between climate and human dengue disease in the Caribbean is complex and influenced by multiple factors, including waste management, infrastructure risks, land use changes, and challenged public health systems. Thus, more detailed research is necessary to understand the complexity of dengue within the wider Caribbean and achieve better dengue disease management.

The movement and biomass fluctuations of sargassum across the Tropical Atlantic have profound implications when influxes reach the Eastern Caribbean. These influxes have cross-cutting impacts across ecological, economic, and social systems. The objective of this work is to quantify sargassum biomass accumulation in the Eastern Caribbean, accounting for the spatial variability in sea surface temperature and morphotype diversity. A parallel implementation of a climatological drifter-based model was used to simulate advection of sargassum across the model domain. After determining the trajectory of virtual sargassum particles, Monte Carlo simulations using 1000 realizations were run to quantify biomass accumulations along these tracks. For simulations with a single morphotype, the biomass accumulation as predicted by the model effectively reproduced the seasonal distributions of sargassum for the simulated period (May 2017 to August 2017). The model closely approximated an observed increase during the period from May to July 2017, followed by a subsequent decline in sargassum abundance. A major factor that led to the discrepancy between the simulated and observed biomass accumulation is the occlusion of the optical satellite signal from cloud cover, which led to underestimates of sargassum abundance. The mean maximum growth rate required to reproduce the observed sargassum biomass was 0.05 day⁻¹, which is consistent with other published experimental and computational studies that have reported similar growth rates for sargassum populations under comparable environmental conditions. An innovative aspect of this study was the investigation of the biomass dynamics of the three dominant morphotypes found in the study area. The results from these simulations show that the accumulation of the fastest growing morphotype, Sargassum fluitans var. fluitans, closely approximates the profiles of the overall prediction with a single morphotype.