Protecting water bodies from eutrophication, ensuring long-term food security and shifting to a circular economy represent compelling objectives to phosphorus management strategies. This study determines how and to which extent the management of phosphorus in Austria can be optimized. A detailed national model, obtained for the year 2013 through Material Flow Analysis, represents the reference situation. Applicability and limitations are discussed for a range of actions aimed at reducing consumption, increasing recycling, and lowering emissions. The potential contribution of each field of action is quantified and compared using three indicators: Import dependency, Consumption of fossil-P fertilizers and Emissions to water bodies. Further, the uncertainty of this assessment is characterized and priorities for the upgrade of data collection are identified. Moreover, all the potential gains discussed in the article are applied to the reference situation to generate an ideal target model. The results show that in Austria a large scope for phosphorus stewardship exists. Strategies based exclusively either on recycling or on the decline of P consumption hold a similar potential to reduce import dependency by 50% each. An enhanced P recycling from meat and bone meal, sewage sludge and compost could replace the current use of fossil-P fertilizers by 70%. The target model, i.e. the maximum that could be achieved taking into account trade-offs between different actions, is characterized by an extremely low import dependency of 0.23kgPcap(-1)y(-1) (2.2kgPcap(-1)y(-1) in 2013), by a 28% decline of emissions to water bodies and by null consumption of fossil-P fertilizers. This case study shows the added value of using Material Flow Analysis as a basis to design sound management strategies. The systemic approach inherent to it allows performing a proper comparative assessment of different actions, identifying priorities, and visualizing a target model.

Summary: Material flow analysis is a tool that is increasingly used as a foundation for resource management and environmental protection. This tool is primarily applied in a static manner to individual years, ignoring the impact of time on the material budgets. In this study, a detailed multiyear model of the Austrian phosphorus budget covering the period 1990–2011 was built to investigate its behavior over time and test the hypothesis that a multiyear approach can also contribute to the improvement of static budgets. Further, a novel method was applied to investigate the quality and characteristics of the data and quantify the uncertainty. The degree of change between the budgets was assessed and showed that approximately half of the flows have changed significantly and, at times, abruptly since 1990, but it is not possible to distinguish unequivocally between constant and moderately changing flows given their uncertainty. The study reveals that the phosphorus transported in waste flows has increased more rapidly than its recovery, which accounted for 55% to 60% of the total waste phosphorus in 1990 and only 40% in 2011. The loss ratio in landfills and cement kilns has oscillated in the range of 40% to 50%. From a methodological point of view, the multiyear approach has broadened the conceptual model of the budget, making it more suitable as a basis for material accounting and monitoring. Moreover, the analysis of the data reconciliation process over a long period of time proved to be a useful tool for identifying systematic errors in the model.